Reuters poll trend
The latest Reuters Poll Trend just arrived in my inbox.
The poll trend included the following analysis from Reuters:
The Poll Trend shows the government began to slowly claw back support after the May budget, pegging Labor’s lead back to 8.9 percent by early August. But Howard’s comeback stalled in August, when the central bank increased interest rates.
The Reuters Poll Trend is not a poll; it is an analysis of the three main polls — Newspoll, published in The Australian newspaper, ACNielsen, published in the Sydney Morning Herald and Age newspapers, and the Morgan Poll, published on line. The Trend aims to summarise the polls by compiling them and removing their volatility. It starts by rolling the published data from the major polls into a fortnightly three-poll average, weighting them equally and the smoothing volatility by using a five-term Henderson moving average. The Henderson process dampens short-term up-and-down movement but aims to leave untouched the underlying drift in the data.