Morgan: 59 to 41 in Labor’s favour
Yesterday saw the first Morgan phone poll for some 6 weeks.
According to the pollster …
“This latest telephone Morgan Poll is a similar result to last Friday’s ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll — both would result in a massive ALP landslide.
“The 50% who said who said they would vote for Labor comprise of 22.5% ‘Soft ALP’ voters (electors who say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today) and 27.5% ‘Strong ALP’ voters (electors who say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and would vote Labor if an election were held today). The Morgan Poll considers ‘Soft ALP’ electors to be the key to the upcoming Federal election.
“The Morgan Polls are showing higher levels of support for the ALP than most other polls. As this is of interest to all poll watchers it is worth noting that the Morgan Poll conducted ‘face-to-face’ includes those who don’t have telephones and those who only have mobile phones — generally an ALP skewed segment.
“Results for telephone polls that exclude these people have an inherent L-NP bias. We believe this explains the difference between the Morgan telephone poll and the Morgan ‘face-to-face’ poll.
“Morgan Polls are weighted by age within sex within area. We don’t know how other public opinion polls are weighted. If they are weighted by past vote (the Morgan Poll hasn’t done this since the late 1960s) then the vote would be closer, but would still result in an ALP landslide.”