Morgan: 59 to 41 in Labor’s favour
The latest Morgan is out.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Election date speculation (yet again)
Yesterday I was sent an email which promised more insider goss on the election date. When I spoke to the person I was told that morning in the gymnasium a very senior public servant said the election was penciled in for late November or early December.
It was less than a week ago I was told that the election would be called yesterday (in part) to head off a potential challenge to Howard’s leadership. The leadership challenge came and went without a leadership change or an election announcement. As salacious as insider tips can be, in my experience they often prove false.
Nonetheless, in this case I am a buyer. For some time I have thought late November or early December is the most like timing. I have my $9 riding on December 8; but I think any of the three Saturdays from 24 November to December 8 a possibility. My rationale for this timing is simple. Howard has his finger on the big election button. He will push the button when he thinks he can get the best possible outcome for the Coalition. Apparently, an election now may not be propitious for the Coalition (you heard it here first). There is a possibility that a later election will afford a better outcome. Howard will therefore hold off on the election in his quest to maximise the Coalition’s chances of winning.
Notwithstanding my argument, SportingBet has 10 November 27 October as the favourite date for the 2007 Federal election. However, Gerard at Lasseters agrees with me on a later election date.
Elections
It hasn’t been one of John Howard’s better weeks, and if punters are correct, then the next six to eight weeks are going to get considerable worse.
Lasseters took the unprecedented step of suspending betting on the upcoming election on Tuesday of this week when it looked like a leadership spill was on the cards. The reasoning behind that was that in Prime Minister Howard was to be replaced by Peter Costello, then the price for the Coalition would blow out significently, people just really don’t warm to Costello. We had the Coalition at 2.75 (Labor 1.45) prior to it closing, and when the leadership issue was put behind us all on Wednesday, betting reopened with Labor at 1.33 and the Coalition at 3.25. Within minutes, a bet of $15,000 came for Labor, so it does seem as though punters are now prepared to cop any odds for Kevin Rudd and his team. They are now a red hot 1.25 chance, with the Coalition way out to 3.70. We keep clinging to the hope that the Coalition will get right back into favour with punters, but it will be a miracle if that happens now. The Libs have done some pretty serious damage to their reputations with this week’s antics, and I guess that means that the election will now be held much later than what the experts were tipping.
A lot of the marginal seats around the country now have a few names up as candidates for the major parties, and we will be opening most of those next Wednesday afternoon.
Betting market update
The events of the past week have played out in the betting market. The average probability of a Coalition win at the 2007 Election from the five bookmakers I have been tracking is now 27.4 per cent. When I checked the market on 2 September it was almost ten points higher at 37.0 per cent.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $3.70 | $1.28 | 25.7% |
| IASBet | $3.40 | $1.30 | 27.7% |
| SportingBet | $3.05 | $1.35 | 30.7% |
| SportsBet | - | - | - |
| SportsAcumen | $3.70 | $1.27 | 25.6% |
| Centerbet | IASBet | SportsBet | SportingBet | SportsAcumen | Average | |
| 01-Jul-2007 | 49.6% | 48.7% | 48.4% | 48.7% | 47.7% | 48.6% |
| 08-Jul-2007 | 49.6% | 47.4% | 47.1% | 48.7% | 48.9% | 48.3% |
| 15-Jul-2007 | 48.7% | 47.4% | 45.8% | 48.7% | 47.6% | 47.6% |
| 19-Jul-2007 | 47.5% | 46.1% | 45.5% | 46.1% | 46.3% | 46.3% |
| 22-Jul-2007 | 44.3% | 44.2% | 43.2% | 46.1% | 43.6% | 44.3% |
| 25-Jul-2007 | 43.3% | 43.2% | 41.6% | 44.0% | 44.0% | 43.2% |
| 26-Jul-2007 | 42.3% | 42.3% | 41.6% | 42.3% | 42.3% | 42.2% |
| 29-Jul-2007 | 44.3% | 42.3% | 41.6% | 42.3% | 43.6% | 42.8% |
| 31-Jul-2007 | 42.3% | 42.3% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.8% | 41.7% |
| 03-Aug-2007 | 42.3% | 41.3% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 40.8% | 41.3% |
| 05-Aug-2007 | 42.3% | 41.3% | 39.4% | 41.0% | 40.8% | 41.0% |
| 09-Aug-2007 | 39.7% | 39.5% | 38.4% | 41.0% | 39.0% | 39.6% |
| 12-Aug-2007 | 37.3% | 36.3% | 37.2% | 38.8% | 37.0% | 37.3% |
| 19-Aug-2007 | 38.1% | 40.2% | 38.0% | 38.8% | ||
| 20-Aug-2007 | 38.1% | 41.0% | 38.6% | 37.5% | 38.6% | 38.8% |
| 28-Aug-2007 | 38.1% | 37.7% | 37.7% | 38.4% | 36.9% | 37.7% |
| 02-Sep-2007 | 36.6% | 36.6% | 37.7% | 38.0% | 36.1% | 37.0% |
| 07-Sep-2007 | 33.4% | 34.2% | 34.9% | 34.9% | 34.1% | 34.3% |
| 09-Sep-2007 | 33.4% | 33.3% | 34.9% | 34.9% | 33.3% | 34.0% |
| 10-Sep-2007 | 32.2% | 32.6% | 32.6% | 32.2% | 32.7% | 32.5% |
| 13-Sep-2007 | 25.7% | 27.7% | 30.7% | 25.6% | 27.4% |
Update 14 Sep 2007: the variability in yesterday’s market was very close to providing an arbitrage opportunity. Today the bookies odds are much more aligned. Overall, however, the average probability of a Coalition win is 27.0 per cent; down slightly on yesterday.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $3.55 | $1.30 | 26.8% |
| IASBet | $3.55 | $1.28 | 26.5% |
| SportingBet | $3.60 | $1.30 | 26.5% |
| SportsBet | $3.55 | $1.30 | 26.8% |
| SportsAcumen | $3.35 | $1.32 | 28.3% |
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Reuters Poll Trend: 57.4 to 42.6 in Labor’s favour
The latest Reuters Poll Trend just arrived in my inbox. The TPP trends are 57.4 to 42.6 per cent in Labor’s favour. The primary vote trends are 48.4 to 37.9 per cent in Labor’s favour.
According to Reuters …
Australia’s conservative government has fallen further behind the centre-left Labor Party opposition as Prime Minister John Howard considers when to call national elections and whether he should remain leader, the latest Reuters Poll Trend has found.
Howard can call an election any time from Wednesday after hosting the weekend Asia-Pacific leaders summit and hosting Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper on a state visit on Tuesday.
But after 11 years in office, Howard’s government trailed Labor by 14.7 points in September on a two-party basis, where minority votes are distributed to the two main parties to decide an election.
Liberal/National Party coalition government support was down by three points over the month to 42.6 percent, compared with 57.4 percent for Labor, up three points.
If the result was carried through to polling day, the government would overwhelmingly lose office and Howard and several ministers could lose their seats.
The results came as Howard, 68, promised to stay leader to fight the election, despite growing concern from his lawmakers that he should contemplate retirement and hand power to his deputy and Treasurer, Peter Costello, 50.
Howard has won four consecutive elections since 1996. He must call the election before mid November. Labor needs to win 16 more seats to win power.
The Reuters Poll Trend is not a poll; it is an analysis of the three main polls — Newspoll, published in The Australian newspaper, ACNielsen, published in the Sydney Morning Herald and Age newspapers, and the Morgan Poll, published on line. The Trend aims to summarise the polls by compiling them and removing their volatility. It starts by rolling the published data from the major polls into a fortnightly three-poll average, weighting them equally and the smoothing volatility by using a five-term Henderson moving average. The Henderson process dampens short-term up-and-down movement but aims to leave untouched the underlying drift in the data.
September meltdown?
The first three polls of spring have been shockers for the Coalition. I usually leave the monthly aggregations until near the end of the month. But with some 3400 people having been polled this month, interesting statistics have emerged. The weighted aggregation to date for September sees Labor on 58.5 per cent of the two party preferred vote. The Coalition is on 41.5 per cent.
If the remainder of the polls for September are similar, the Coalition will have dropped three points since its July peak, and it would be five points off where it should be if it is be electorally competitive by the end of the year.
The trend lines and the moving averages tell a consistent story: the Coalition’s claw back has stalled.
To me these do not look like the kind of numbers that would see an election called before the week is over.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.