Oz Politics Blog

The SMH and Age reported an online ACNielsen poll: 58 to 42 in Labor’s favour.

The Australian reported on leaked Crosby Textor polling. This Liberal Party polling showed that the Coalition would have held all of its 10 West Australian seats and gained Labor-held Cowan if an election had taken place two weeks ago. Okay, the usual caveats apply when political parties leak internal polling.

Possum at his vitriolic best put the boot into Christopher Pearson’s analysis of the polls.

A new news aggregation site: Scopical

The latest Galaxy poll is out.

It is the same old, same old. This poll is consistent with the other pollsters, and evidences no significant change on the previous Galaxy poll.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

The betting market has recovered a little for the Coalition since last Sunday. Since then, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking moved from 26.7 per cent to 34.9 per cent. If the same 2007 Federal election were repeated 20 times, the most likely outcome would see John Howard win 7 elections and Kevin Rudd win 13. Last Sunday it was 5 and 15 respectively.

The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here

The latest Morgan is out.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Newspoll released its quarterly polling results in today’s Australian, where you can read Dennis Shanahan’s take on these results.

The Coalition is behind in all categories except Western Australia.

To see how much things have changed, it’s worth comparing the third quarter in 2007 (ie the previous chart) with the first quarter in 2005.

The big mover over the last quarter was non-capital cities, which posted a significant return to Coalition; although still on the downside of the 2004 election result.

I did a little math to approximate the state by state two-party preferred swings from the Newspoll state-by-state primary vote predictions. You can pop these swings into Antony Green’s election calculator when it comes online later today.

When I popped the Q3 swings into Antony’s pre-production model. it predicted a Labor victory with 103 seats. However, as there has been a small trend back to the Coalition over the period (in all states but Victoria it appears), the Q3 averages probably over-estimate the current state of the state-by-state swings.

The full set of quarterly charts should appear in my last post on the Newspoll quarterly.