Last Saturday in November?

Bryan · Sunday 30 September 2007 · 7:24 am

According to the Age, Treasurer Costello told comedian Dave Hughes that the election would be held on the last Saturday in November *ie. 24 November).

Hughes had asked the Treasurer how he was feeling. Costello replied that he was “very toey indeed”, with butterflies in the stomach.

Hughes: “What are you talking about, the election or the grand final?”

Costello: “They all culminate together this time of year, of course, the last day of September, and the last day of November, isn’t it?”

Hughes sensed a scoop. “Is it? You’ve just called it, have you?” he asked. “You’ve taken over already, have you?”

The Treasurer quickly corrected himself. “Some time between now and Christmas — and it won’t be Christmas Day.”

November 24 remains the favourite with Sportingbet.

The latest a 24 November election can be called is 22 October 2007.

A November 24 election could see another Parliamentary sitting week, from 15 to 18 October.

Date Odds Raw Probabilites Adjusted Probabilities
November 3rd $13.00 7.7% 5.1%
November 10th $6.00 16.7% 11.1%
November 17th $3.00 33.3% 22.2%
November 24th $2.50 40.0% 26.7%
December 1st $4.00 25.0% 16.7%
December 8th $7.50 13.3% 8.9%
December 15th $12.00 8.3% 5.6%
December 22nd $101.00 1.0% 0.7%
December 29th $61.00 1.6% 1.1%
Any Saturday during January or beyond $34.00 2.9% 2.0%
Vigorish: 149.9% 100.0%