Betting market update
The betting market has recovered a little for the Coalition since last Sunday. Since then, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking moved from 26.7 per cent to 34.9 per cent. If the same 2007 Federal election were repeated 20 times, the most likely outcome would see John Howard win 7 elections and Kevin Rudd win 13. Last Sunday it was 5 and 15 respectively.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $2.60 | $1.50 | 36.6% |
| IASBet | $2.75 | $1.45 | 34.5% |
| SportingBet | $2.75 | $1.45 | 34.5% |
| SportsBet | $2.80 | $1.42 | 33.6% |
| SportsAcumen | $2.62 | $1.48 | 36.1% |
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here