Election date speculation

Bryan · Thursday 20 September 2007 · 5:11 am

While the betting market stills sees the possibility of a 27 October 2007 election, the last Saturday of November or the first Saturday of December are firming as the favourites.

Date Odds Probability
October 27th $4.00 16%
November 3rd $7.50 8%
November 10th $6.00 10%
November 17th $4.50 14%
November 24th $3.50 18%
December 1st $3.75 17%
December 8th $9.00 7%
December 15th $11.00 6%
December 22nd $81.00 1%
December 29th $41.00 2%
Any Saturday during January or beyond $31.00 2%

I remain convinced that the 24 November to 8 December window is the most likely timing.

A 27 October 2007 election would need to be called by next Monday. I don’t think that will happen.