Betting market update
The betting market has recovered a little for the Coalition since Sunday. Since then, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking moved from 26.7 per cent to 33.0 per cent. What is harder to explain is why. Was it Tuesday’s Newspoll? Was it yesterday’s tax gaffe? Or is there another factor at play?
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $2.85 | $1.43 | 33.4% |
| IASBet | $2.80 | $1.43 | 33.8% |
| SportingBet | $3.00 | $1.40 | 31.8% |
| SportsBet | $2.80 | $1.42 | 33.6% |
| SportsAcumen | $2.95 | $1.40 | 32.2% |
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Update from my inbox:
Hi Bryan,
It was almost certainly the Newspoll. The movements (largely? totally?) happened before the tax gaffe. Not the most rational responses, but anyway…
EconoMan