Oz Politics Blog

The latest Newspoll is out. Today’s poll has been seen by a number of commentators as a reprieve for the Coalition, and the previous Newspoll has been cast as aberrant.

I am not convinced.

In respect of being aberrant, it was not just Newspoll that headed south for the Coalition. All of the major polls did. The weekly Morgan dropped 5.5 points on 2 September to 40 per cent, but only rose one point on 9 September 20 41 per cent. The fortnightly Newspoll dropped four points to 41 per cent on 2 September. The monthly ACNielsen dropped two points on 8 September to 43 per cent. I accept that all of these movements could have been random noise — let’s be honest, there was not a clear explanatory factor for the observed poll movement in early September. Nonetheless, that all three pollsters went south should have been worrying for the Coalition.

Is the latest result a reprieve? Well it is much better news for the Coalition than 41 per cent. But I were them, I would be worried about the 45 per cent ceiling that has been in play since May. Should 55-45 be repeated at the ballot box it would be a huge Labor win.

If you compare the 2007 trajectories with 2004 and 2001, Labor is riding significantly higher in the saddle. Given that we are 90 days out from an election at most, the Coalition would want to be hitting 47 and 48 as often as it falls below 45. Indeed, as we are approaching the short game of electoral golf, the odd 50 would not go astray at the moment.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

PS: Antony Green’s Federal election web site should be up today on Friday.