September meltdown?
The first three polls of spring have been shockers for the Coalition. I usually leave the monthly aggregations until near the end of the month. But with some 3400 people having been polled this month, interesting statistics have emerged. The weighted aggregation to date for September sees Labor on 58.5 per cent of the two party preferred vote. The Coalition is on 41.5 per cent.
If the remainder of the polls for September are similar, the Coalition will have dropped three points since its July peak, and it would be five points off where it should be if it is be electorally competitive by the end of the year.
The trend lines and the moving averages tell a consistent story: the Coalition’s claw back has stalled.
To me these do not look like the kind of numbers that would see an election called before the week is over.
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