Bryan
· Sunday 30 September 2007
· 7:54 am
Compared with the previous fortnight, there has not been much movement in the past week. Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 34.9 per cent. Today it is 33.9 per cent.
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Betting market ·
Bryan
· 7:24 am
According to the Age, Treasurer Costello told comedian Dave Hughes that the election would be held on the last Saturday in November *ie. 24 November).
Hughes had asked the Treasurer how he was feeling. Costello replied that he was “very toey indeed”, with butterflies in the stomach.
Hughes: “What are you talking about, the election or the grand final?”
Costello: “They all culminate together this time of year, of course, the last day of September, and the last day of November, isn’t it?”
Hughes sensed a scoop. “Is it? You’ve just called it, have you?” he asked. “You’ve taken over already, have you?”
The Treasurer quickly corrected himself. “Some time between now and Christmas — and it won’t be Christmas Day.”
November 24 remains the favourite with Sportingbet.
The latest a 24 November election can be called is 22 October 2007.
A November 24 election could see another Parliamentary sitting week, from 15 to 18 October.
| Date |
Odds |
Raw Probabilites |
Adjusted Probabilities |
| November 3rd |
$13.00 |
7.7% |
5.1% |
| November 10th |
$6.00 |
16.7% |
11.1% |
| November 17th |
$3.00 |
33.3% |
22.2% |
| November 24th |
$2.50 |
40.0% |
26.7% |
| December 1st |
$4.00 |
25.0% |
16.7% |
| December 8th |
$7.50 |
13.3% |
8.9% |
| December 15th |
$12.00 |
8.3% |
5.6% |
| December 22nd |
$101.00 |
1.0% |
0.7% |
| December 29th |
$61.00 |
1.6% |
1.1% |
| Any Saturday during January or beyond |
$34.00 |
2.9% |
2.0% |
| Vigorish: |
|
149.9% |
100.0% |
Election 2007 ·
Bryan
· Friday 28 September 2007
· 7:58 pm
A couple of days ago I said that it might just be possible that the Coalition is turning a corner. Today’s Morgan poll suggests not.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
General ·
Bryan
· Wednesday 26 September 2007
· 6:58 am
The Coalition may just be turning the corner. Regulars here will know that from March to July, the Coalition was trending towards a tight election finish in 2007. But August and early September saw almost half of the gains from the previous five months lost.
When I fed the latest data from this week’s Galaxy poll into my combined polling trend, two interesting things emerged. First, the Coalition’s primary vote is improving in trend terms. Second, the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote is no longer trending away from electoral competitiveness. (Note: you may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest trend charts).
However, it remains a huge step from where the Coalition is now to where it would want to be when the election occurs.
The other trend graphs are here, and the monthly aggregations are here.
Polls ·
Bryan
· Tuesday 25 September 2007
· 7:41 am
November 24 remains the favourite with Sportingbet.
The latest a 24 November election can be called is 22 October 2007.
A November 24 election could see another Parliamentary sitting week, from 15 to 18 October.
| Date |
Odds |
Probability |
| November 3rd |
$8.50 |
9.0% |
| November 10th |
$4.75 |
16.1% |
| November 17th |
$4.50 |
17.0% |
| November 24th |
$3.75 |
20.4% |
| December 1st |
$4.50 |
17.0% |
| December 8th |
$9.00 |
8.5% |
| December 15th |
$11.00 |
6.9% |
| December 22nd |
$81.00 |
0.9% |
| December 29th |
$41.00 |
1.9% |
| Any Saturday during January or beyond |
$31.00 |
2.5% |
General ·