Economic indicators: Whitlam to Howard
The Parliamentary Library has just updated a research paper by Tony Kryger that summarises the performance of the economy during each administration from Whitlam through to Howard. The key graphs follow.
Morgan: 58.5 to 41.5 in Labor’s favour
Morgan has released another telephone poll. I am still not sure what to make of Morgan’s small sample size telephone polls. This series is the most pessimistic for the government and the most optimistic for Labor.
You may need to hit the refresh or reload buton to see the latest graph.
Peter Andren MP
In a shock media statement, the independent member for Calare, Peter Andren MP, said he has been diagnosed with cancer and will be undergoing treatment over coming weeks.
Because of the nature of the illness and treatment phase I have reluctantly decided to withdraw from the upcoming Senate election, and will be putting all my energies into my recovery over the next few months.
Election Date II
Centrebet has opened a book on the election date:
| Date | Odds | Probability |
| Before October 6th 2007 | $67.00 | 1.1% |
| October 6th 2007 | $23.00 | 3.1% |
| October 13th 2007 | $21.00 | 3.4% |
| October 20th 2007 | $11.00 | 6.5% |
| October 27th 2007 | $9.00 | 7.9% |
| November 3rd 2007 | $7.50 | 9.5% |
| November 10th 2007 | $4.00 | 17.9% |
| November 17th 2007 | $4.00 | 17.9% |
| November 24th 2007 | $4.00 | 17.9% |
| December 1st 2007 | $9.00 | 7.9% |
| December 8th 2007 | $15.00 | 4.8% |
| After December 8th 2007 | $34.00 | 2.1% |
Regrets, I have had few …
Crikey reported that Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy regretted writing an opinion piece for The Australian supporting the paper’s interpretation of a recent Newspoll. I wonder whether it was the Possum’s statistical demolition of O’Shannessy’s argument that hurt.
Are we there yet?
Election Date
According to Peter Hartcher and Paul McIntyre in today’s SMH,
THE Liberal Party has booked about $7 million worth of television air time for an intense burst of campaign advertising, giving the first concrete idea of John Howard’s election timing.
The bulk of the bookings with the three commercial TV networks extend from early October to the end of November, according to people familiar with the transactions. Some ad space that the Liberals had reserved for September was cancelled.
The Prime Minister can call an election as late as January 19, but the bookings indicate he is contemplating a November election.
If there is an election betting market susceptible to inside information, it would be the date of the next election. According the Sportingbet, the odds for the next election date are:
| Date | Odds | Probability |
| Any Saturday during August/September | $26.00 | 2.0% |
| October 6th | $15.00 | 3.5% |
| October 13th | $9.50 | 5.5% |
| October 20th | $7.50 | 6.9% |
| October 27th | $7.50 | 6.9% |
| November 3rd | $7.50 | 6.9% |
| November 10th | $5.00 | 10.4% |
| November 17th | $5.50 | 9.5% |
| November 24th | $4.00 | 13.0% |
| December 1st | $4.50 | 11.6% |
| December 8th | $6.50 | 8.0% |
| December 15th | $9.00 | 5.8% |
| December 22nd | $15.00 | 3.5% |
| December 29th | $21.00 | 2.5% |
| Any Saturday during January or beyond | $13.00 | 4.0% |
Seat by seat
Portlandbet emailed with this news …
This week betting continued unabated in PortlandBets historic all seat markets for the upcoming Federal election.
But, while Labor shortened again in the overall market, the Coalition received support seat by seat and slowed the ALPs momentum to a crawl. While the loss of Blair would be a bitter blow to a government desperate to stem the tide against them, it was one of only four seats to move towards Labor this week.
And what an interesting trio the other three were!
The Adelaide seat of Sturt, currently held by Minister for Ageing, Christopher Pyne, has only fallen to Labor twice since it was created (in 1954 and 1969). With a gap to make up of almost 7%, Labors Mia Handshin has a big task, but punters clearly think she is not without a hope, backing her in to $3 from an opening quote of $8!
The other two seats? None other than the PMs own seat of Bennelong and high profile Environment and Water Minister, Malcolm Turnbulls, seat of Wentworth.
Despite his profile, the high-flying Turnbull holds his seat with a notional margin of just 2.6% after the 2006 redistribution, and there can be no doubt he will have to work to hold on. Despite receiving support in the market this week, his price drifted and Labor candidate George Newhouse was the beneficiary - hes now in to $2.70 and must now be called a chance.
And Maxine McKew keeps nibbling away at John Howards position in Bennelong. The former ABC journalist opened at $3.75 and is in to $2.85 - just another front for the Prime Minister to fight on as he faces the toughest battle of his long political life.
There were also two new entries to PBs market mover list this week - Parkes and Forrest, where speculators have come aboard for independent candidates at long odds.
Overall
Four of the five bookmakers I am tracking now have the probability of a Coalition win in 2007 at less than 40 per cent.
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Interest rates
I have updated the Sawford Formula graphs for yesterday’s movement in interest rates.