Oz Politics Blog

Today’s Age and SMH reported on the latest ACNielsen poll. The headline prediction was that were an election held, Labor would win 55 per cent of the two-party preferred vote and the Coalition 45 per cent: a landslide win for Labor. The primary vote predictions were 41 per cent for the Coalition and 46 per cent for Labor.

Some mainstream media commentators have focused on the 3 point movement on the previous ACNielsen poll. My suspicion is that the previous poll was on the pessimistic side for the Government, and this poll represents a return to normal.

Of note, since March 2007 Morgan, ACNielsen and Newspoll have been tracking very similar trajectories. If we cast that trajectory forward, and assuming the Coalition continues to improve its standing at the same rate it has been for some months now, it would see Howard enter into a mid-November election with the polls somewhere between 52 to 48 and 53 to 47 in Labor’s favour.

In her report, Michelle Grattan provided state-by-state breakdowns. Although they are interesting, they have been produced from small samples and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

The Nielsen poll shows much variation between states. Labor leads on a two-party basis 62-38 per cent in South Australia, 57-43 per cent in Queensland, 56-44 per cent in NSW, and 51-49 per cent in Victoria. In Western Australia Labor trails 44-56 per cent. The WA finding is in contrast to a Westpoll last week showing support surging for Labor.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Simon Jackman has constructed a visually stunning state-by-state pendulum for the 2007 Federal Election. Jackman’s contention is that the 2007 Federal election is not necessarily a lay down misere win for Labor.

Despite how well Labor is doing in the polls at the moment, there are many scenarios in which Labor doesn’t quite get there, just given the magnitude of the seat-by-seat swings that are required if some of the tighter marginals don’t fall in line with the national trend (at which point we might start up the “Don’s Party” 1969 comparisons…).

Perhaps this is why based on the current seat-by-seat prices on Portlandbet that market has Labor coming up a few seats short (despite the headline betting markets favoring Labor pretty comfortably at the moment).

This week, Labor firmed with all of the bookmakers I am tracking. Today the average probability for a Coalition win at the 2007 election is 37.3 per cent. The Coalition’s average probability fell 3.7 percentage points in the past week. Last Sunday it was 41.0 per cent. The Sunday before that it was 42.8.

According to Centrebet, the favourite for the election date is 10 November 2007. Sportingbet has it as 24 November 2007.

The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here

Glenn Milne in today’s Daily Telegraph reported on a Galaxy poll in the Prime Minister’s seat of Benelong.

The Prime Minister is now facing a seven per cent swing in Bennelong. That puts Ms McKew in a commanding position with 53 per cent of the vote after distribution of preferences. The seat only needs a four per cent two-party preferred swing to change hands.

It’s understood the Galaxy poll is also in line with internal ALP research in Bennelong. Labor needs a uniform national swing of five per cent and a net gain of 16 seats to put Mr Rudd in The Lodge…

The Sunday Telegraph/SBS Insight Galaxy Poll was conducted on the evenings of August 8 and 9, based on a large sample of 800 voters. Primary support for John Howard is at 44 per cent, unchanged since May and down around six points since the last election.

In contrast, support for Ms McKew is now 47 per cent - little changed since May but a huge 19 points higher than the vote achieved by the ALP candidate at the last federal election.

The latest Westpoll of 400 Western Australians predicted that Labor would win 54 per cent of the TPP vote in WA. Related coverage in the Age.

I am a little sceptical about the 8 point movement in this poll when compared with the previous few Westpolls. Those familiar with this site would know that I typically reject as noise any significant poll movement that can not be attributed to an event that one would reasonably expect to change voting intention. Even if I can point to a plausible explanatory variable, I usually suspend judgment on a single poll result that could mark a discontinuity.

To put it another way: don’t read too much into a single poll result.