The latest Morgan telephone poll is out. It continues with its story, whish is out of step with the other polls. I have no idea what to make of this series.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
The bookies have firmed on 10 November 2007 as the election date.
| Centrebet | Sportingbet | |||
| Odds | Probability | Odds | Probability | |
| Before October 6th 2007 | $51.00 | 1% | $26.00 | 2% |
| October 6th 2007 | $34.00 | 2% | $15.00 | 3% |
| October 13th 2007 | $31.00 | 2% | $8.50 | 6% |
| October 20th 2007 | $5.50 | 13% | $6.50 | 8% |
| October 27th 2007 | $6.50 | 11% | $6.00 | 9% |
| November 3rd 2007 | $7.00 | 10% | $7.00 | 7% |
| November 10th 2007 | $4.15 | 17% | $4.00 | 13% |
| November 17th 2007 | $6.00 | 12% | $6.00 | 9% |
| November 24th 2007 | $6.00 | 12% | $4.50 | 11% |
| December 1st 2007 | $6.00 | 12% | $5.50 | 9% |
| December 8th 2007 | $16.00 | 4% | $8.00 | 6% |
| December 15th | $9.00 | 6% | ||
| December 22nd | $15.00 | 3% | ||
| December 29th | $21.00 | 2% | ||
| Any Saturday during January or beyond | $13.00 | 4% | ||
| After December 8th 2007 | $26.00 | 3% | ||
The latest a 10 November election can be called is 8 October. A 10 November election would yield 20 September 2007 as the last sitting day for Parliament.
Last time I looked, 24 November was the favourite.
Interestingly, one of these bookmakers had set the vig at around twice the other. I accept that a book on the election date is a tricky proposition and carries significant risk for the bookmaker, but an overround of 93 per cent — sheesh!
The latest Newspoll was reported in today’s Australian, with commentary from Dennis Shanahan. The headline prediction was a two-party preferred vote share of 55 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition. This result was consistent with the other pollsters, with the exception of the most recent Morgan poll (which I suspect was anomalous).
If an election were held last weekend, the result would have been a landslide win for Labor. Coalition supporters would be hoping for another Howard win from behind. But on this, the latest moving average graphs for the Newspoll and Morgan series suggest the Coalition’s recovery momentum may be slowing. (Although that suggestion might simply be noise from the specific ons and offs in the latest moving average figures).
The primary vote comparison with 1996 also appears to be continuing.
The Australian also had news of a new polling company — YouGov — being established in Australia, with an internet panel of some 50,000.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
This afternoon, when I did my usual Sunday trawl of the bookmakers, I found two — Sportingbet and Sportsbet — were not posting odds. The other three had taken a small step in the Government’s favour since last Sunday. Perhaps this movement can be attributed to Glenn Milne’s allegations in today’s Telegraph.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $2.50 | $1.54 | 38.1% |
| IASBet | $2.35 | $1.58 | 40.2% |
| SportingBet | - | - | - |
| SportsBet | - | - | - |
| SportsAcumen | $2.50 | $1.53 | 38.0% |
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Update: Simon Jackman has this interesting histogram of the range of likely outcomes implied by Portlandbet’s individual seat betting. The most likely outcome (assuming two independents) is Coalition 76 seats, Labor 72 seats, independents 2 seats. According to the individual seat betting market, the probability that Labor wins 76 or more seats is 20 per cent. This result differs from the overall betting market outcome, which has Labor well ahead.
The latest Reuters Poll Trend shows John Howard is slowly clawing back support in the lead up to national elections, although his government still trails the Labor Party Opposition.
After 11 years in office, Howard’s government trails Labor by 9.8 points in August on a two-party basis, where minority votes are distributed to the two main parties to decide an election.
Liberal/National Party coalition government support was 45.1 percent compared to 54.9 percent for Labor.
The government has slowly reduced Labor’s poll lead since mid-March, when the government trailed by 19.2 points. August’s result is the first time the government has reduced the gap to less than 10 points since Labor elected Kevin Rudd as leader in December 2006.
The results came after Australia’s central bank increased interest rates in early August to a decade high of 6.5 percent, and before new reports of leadership tension between Howard and his Treasurer Peter Costello.
The Reuters Poll Trend is not a poll; it is an analysis of the three main polls — Newspoll, published in The Australian newspaper, ACNielsen, published in the Sydney Morning Herald and Age newspapers, and the Morgan Poll, published on line. The Trend aims to summarise the polls by compiling them and removing their volatility. It starts by rolling the published data from the major polls into a fortnightly three-poll average, weighting them equally and the smoothing volatility by using a five-term Henderson moving average. The Henderson process dampens short-term up-and-down movement but aims to leave untouched the underlying drift in the data.