Morgan: 54.5 to 45.5 in Labor’s favour
The latest Morgan is out. While it was in Labor landslide territory, it was the most favourable poll for the Coalition this month. With a sample size of 1274, it was also around 400 to 500 people fewer than I was expecting.
Three of the last four Morgan polls have been close to 55 for Labor and 45 for the Coalition. Newspoll was in much the same space over the same period. The last ACNielsen was also there. While the most recent Galaxy was more favourable for Labor, the Galaxy poll before that was 54/46 in Labor’s favour. My suspicion is that the underlying trend is has been stagnant around 55 to 45 for the past couple of months. According to the election calculator, 55 per cent for Labor would see it win 94 seats.
That completes the polling for August. We seem to have a hiccup to the trend that emerged between March and July. The Coalition is around 1.5 points off where they would want to be at the moment. It will be interesting to see whether September sees a return to the March-July trend or a plateauing.
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