What’s happening in August?
Regular visitors to Ozpolitics.info will know that I am more interested in the data trends over the medium term than the vagaries of poll-on-poll movements. One of the techniques I use to discern the polling trend is a monthly weighted aggregation. I take all of the polls for a month — Morgan face-to-face, Newspoll, ACNielsen and Galaxy — and recombine them into a single poll result for the month.
From March through July, a clear trend was emerging. That trend, if it continued, would have seen the Coalition in a winning position by mid December 2007.
This month’s aggregation is almost complete. It is only missing the last Morgan poll for the month.
The news? Well it looks like the trend back to the Coalition may have encountered an obstacle. Yes, it may simply be a perturbation in the data. But it is more likely to be something real.
