10 November?
The bookies have firmed on 10 November 2007 as the election date.
| Centrebet | Sportingbet | |||
| Odds | Probability | Odds | Probability | |
| Before October 6th 2007 | $51.00 | 1% | $26.00 | 2% |
| October 6th 2007 | $34.00 | 2% | $15.00 | 3% |
| October 13th 2007 | $31.00 | 2% | $8.50 | 6% |
| October 20th 2007 | $5.50 | 13% | $6.50 | 8% |
| October 27th 2007 | $6.50 | 11% | $6.00 | 9% |
| November 3rd 2007 | $7.00 | 10% | $7.00 | 7% |
| November 10th 2007 | $4.15 | 17% | $4.00 | 13% |
| November 17th 2007 | $6.00 | 12% | $6.00 | 9% |
| November 24th 2007 | $6.00 | 12% | $4.50 | 11% |
| December 1st 2007 | $6.00 | 12% | $5.50 | 9% |
| December 8th 2007 | $16.00 | 4% | $8.00 | 6% |
| December 15th | $9.00 | 6% | ||
| December 22nd | $15.00 | 3% | ||
| December 29th | $21.00 | 2% | ||
| Any Saturday during January or beyond | $13.00 | 4% | ||
| After December 8th 2007 | $26.00 | 3% | ||
The latest a 10 November election can be called is 8 October. A 10 November election would yield 20 September 2007 as the last sitting day for Parliament.
Last time I looked, 24 November was the favourite.
Interestingly, one of these bookmakers had set the vig at around twice the other. I accept that a book on the election date is a tricky proposition and carries significant risk for the bookmaker, but an overround of 93 per cent — sheesh!