Newspoll: 55 to 45 in Labor’s favor

Bryan · Tuesday 21 August 2007 · 6:58 am

The latest Newspoll was reported in today’s Australian, with commentary from Dennis Shanahan. The headline prediction was a two-party preferred vote share of 55 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition. This result was consistent with the other pollsters, with the exception of the most recent Morgan poll (which I suspect was anomalous).

TPP predictions

If an election were held last weekend, the result would have been a landslide win for Labor. Coalition supporters would be hoping for another Howard win from behind. But on this, the latest moving average graphs for the Newspoll and Morgan series suggest the Coalition’s recovery momentum may be slowing. (Although that suggestion might simply be noise from the specific ons and offs in the latest moving average figures).

Opinion polls: Coalition two-party preferred vote moving average

The primary vote comparison with 1996 also appears to be continuing.

Newspoll: primary voting intention in the lead up to the 1996 and 2007 elections

Newspoll: Labor's TPP predictions for 2001, 2004 and 2007

The Australian also had news of a new polling company — YouGov — being established in Australia, with an internet panel of some 50,000.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Newspoll · Polls ·