Betting market update
This afternoon, when I did my usual Sunday trawl of the bookmakers, I found two — Sportingbet and Sportsbet — were not posting odds. The other three had taken a small step in the Government’s favour since last Sunday. Perhaps this movement can be attributed to Glenn Milne’s allegations in today’s Telegraph.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $2.50 | $1.54 | 38.1% |
| IASBet | $2.35 | $1.58 | 40.2% |
| SportingBet | - | - | - |
| SportsBet | - | - | - |
| SportsAcumen | $2.50 | $1.53 | 38.0% |
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here
Update: Simon Jackman has this interesting histogram of the range of likely outcomes implied by Portlandbet’s individual seat betting. The most likely outcome (assuming two independents) is Coalition 76 seats, Labor 72 seats, independents 2 seats. According to the individual seat betting market, the probability that Labor wins 76 or more seats is 20 per cent. This result differs from the overall betting market outcome, which has Labor well ahead.