ACNielsen: 55 to 45 in Labor’s favour
Today’s Age and SMH reported on the latest ACNielsen poll. The headline prediction was that were an election held, Labor would win 55 per cent of the two-party preferred vote and the Coalition 45 per cent: a landslide win for Labor. The primary vote predictions were 41 per cent for the Coalition and 46 per cent for Labor.
Some mainstream media commentators have focused on the 3 point movement on the previous ACNielsen poll. My suspicion is that the previous poll was on the pessimistic side for the Government, and this poll represents a return to normal.
Of note, since March 2007 Morgan, ACNielsen and Newspoll have been tracking very similar trajectories. If we cast that trajectory forward, and assuming the Coalition continues to improve its standing at the same rate it has been for some months now, it would see Howard enter into a mid-November election with the polls somewhere between 52 to 48 and 53 to 47 in Labor’s favour.
In her report, Michelle Grattan provided state-by-state breakdowns. Although they are interesting, they have been produced from small samples and should be taken with a pinch of salt.
The Nielsen poll shows much variation between states. Labor leads on a two-party basis 62-38 per cent in South Australia, 57-43 per cent in Queensland, 56-44 per cent in NSW, and 51-49 per cent in Victoria. In Western Australia Labor trails 44-56 per cent. The WA finding is in contrast to a Westpoll last week showing support surging for Labor.
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