Jackman’s pendulum
Simon Jackman has constructed a visually stunning state-by-state pendulum for the 2007 Federal Election. Jackman’s contention is that the 2007 Federal election is not necessarily a lay down misere win for Labor.
Despite how well Labor is doing in the polls at the moment, there are many scenarios in which Labor doesn’t quite get there, just given the magnitude of the seat-by-seat swings that are required if some of the tighter marginals don’t fall in line with the national trend (at which point we might start up the “Don’s Party” 1969 comparisons…).
Perhaps this is why based on the current seat-by-seat prices on Portlandbet that market has Labor coming up a few seats short (despite the headline betting markets favoring Labor pretty comfortably at the moment).