Election Date II

Bryan · Friday 10 August 2007 · 6:24 am

Centrebet has opened a book on the election date:

Date Odds Probability
Before October 6th 2007 $67.00 1.1%
October 6th 2007 $23.00 3.1%
October 13th 2007 $21.00 3.4%
October 20th 2007 $11.00 6.5%
October 27th 2007 $9.00 7.9%
November 3rd 2007 $7.50 9.5%
November 10th 2007 $4.00 17.9%
November 17th 2007 $4.00 17.9%
November 24th 2007 $4.00 17.9%
December 1st 2007 $9.00 7.9%
December 8th 2007 $15.00 4.8%
After December 8th 2007 $34.00 2.1%

Regrets, I have had few …

Crikey reported that Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy regretted writing an opinion piece for The Australian supporting the paper’s interpretation of a recent Newspoll. I wonder whether it was the Possum’s statistical demolition of O’Shannessy’s argument that hurt.