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Morgan phone poll: 59 to 41 in Labor’s favour

Bryan · Monday 9 July 2007 · 9:05 pm

Morgan released phone poll results from 611 respondents over 4-5 July. The results matched Morgan’s most recent face-to-face poll: 59 to 41 in Labor’s favour.

Telephone Morgan Poll Face-to-Face
2004 Election May 16-17, 2007 (sample 582 electors) June 5-7, 2007 (sample 556 electors) June 13/14, 2007 (sample 614 electors) July 4/5, 2007 (sample 611 electors) June 23/24 & June 30/July 1, 2007 (sample 1,690 electors)
% % % % % %
Coalition Primary 46.4 39 40 40 35 36.5
Labor Primary 37.6 49 46 43.5 49 50.5
Greens Primary 7.2 6 7.5 9.5 7 7
Independents/ Others Primary 8.8 6 6.5 7 9 6
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Coalition TPP 52.7 43 45 45 41 41
Labor TPP 47.3 57 55 55 59 59
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

As I have said many times before, I tend to discount four and five point movements between polls without a compelling cover story. I will doubt the step to the left suggested by this latest poll, unless it is evident in other polls and sustained in the next Mogan phone poll.

Because of the different polling modalities, I have not included the Morgan phone polls in my usual graphs.

Morgan · Polls ·

New tipping competition

Bryan · Sunday 8 July 2007 · 12:06 pm

I have a new tipping competition for the psephologically challenged: pick the winner in 16 of the 150 seats in the Federal parliament. To help you in this task, the following table provides links to the necessary information. You may also find the election calculator helpful.

Seat Current member Party Margin
Bennelong, NSW # * John Howard # Liberal 4.0%
Bowman, Qld # * Andrew Laming # Liberal 8.9%
Corangamite, Vic # * Stewart McArthur # Liberal 5.3%
Cowan, WA # * Graham Edwards # Labor 0.8%
Eden-Monaro, NSW # * Gary Nairn # Liberal 3.3%
Hasluck, WA # * Stuart Henry # Liberal 1.8%
Herbert, Qld # * Peter Lindsay # Liberal 6.1%
Hindmarsh, SA # * Steve Georganas # Labor 0.1%
Kalgoorlie, WA # * Barry Haase # Liberal 6.3%
Paterson, NSW # * Bob Baldwin # Liberal 6.8%
Richmond, NSW # * Justine Elliot # Labor 1.5%
Solomon, NT # * Dave Tollner # CLP 2.8%
Swan, WA # * Kim Wilkie # Labor 0.1%
Wakefield, SA # * David Fawcett # Liberal 0.7%
Wentworth, NSW # * Malcolm Turnbull # Liberal 2.6%
North Sydney, NSW # * Joe Hockey # Liberal 10.0%

Key

  • Normal links to Wikipedia
  • # — links to official pages
  • * — links to Adam Carr’s 2007 election guide

Are you up to the challenge?

Election 2007 ·

Betting market update

Bryan · 6:52 am

Since last Sunday, there has been a slight movement away from the government among the five bookmakers I am tracking. Two bookmakers have moved in Rudd’s direction just slightly. One bookmaker edged in Howard’s direction. The other two were unchanged. Today the average probability for a Coalition win at the 2007 election is 48.3 per cent.

All-in-all, there has been little movement over the last month. The average probability for a Coalition win at the 2007 election was 48.6 per cent last Sunday, 48.8 per cent on the Sunday before that, and 48.5 per cent on the Sunday before that.

While Rudd is marginally ahead as the favourite, the book makers are saying this is a close contest. If the same 2007 Federal election were repeated 20 times, the most likely outcome would see John Howard win 10 elections and Kevin Rudd win 10.

The election outcome probabilities have stayed pretty much in 45-55 to 50-50 range since February 2007. Rudd has been marginally ahead for all but a bit over a week of that time.

Bookmaker Coalition Odds Labor Odds Probability of a Coalition Win
Centrebet $1.90 $1.87 49.6%
IASBet $2.00 $1.80 47.4%
SportingBet $1.95 $1.85 48.7%
SportsBet $2.00 $1.78 47.1%
SportsAcumen $1.93 $1.85 48.9%

Betting market probabilities

Betting market probabilities

The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Betting market ·

Seat by seat betting

Bryan · Saturday 7 July 2007 · 10:27 am

Now that it is the weekend I can have a closer look at the Portlandbet seat-by-seat betting market.

The current state of the market is as follows:

N’ help by Odds Probabilities Predict 2004 Notional L-NP TPP(%) 2004 Notional ALP TPP(%)
Seat S/T L-NP ALP Oth L-NP ALP Oth
Batman Vic ALP $13.00 $1.00 $31.00 7% 90% 3% ALP 28.7 71.3
Grayndler NSW ALP $29.00 $1.00 $15.00 3% 91% 6% ALP 28.7 71.3
Melbourne Vic ALP $19.00 $1.00 $19.00 5% 90% 5% ALP 28.9 71.1
Sydney NSW ALP $29.00 $1.02 $11.00 3% 89% 8% ALP 32.7 67.3
Wills Vic ALP $15.00 $1.00 $29.00 6% 91% 3% ALP 33.1 66.9
Blaxland NSW ALP $16.00 $1.00 $26.00 6% 91% 3% ALP 34.7 65.3
Gellibrand Vic ALP $19.00 $1.00 $19.00 5% 90% 5% ALP 35.0 65.0
Gorton Vic ALP $19.00 $1.00 $19.00 5% 90% 5% ALP 35.1 64.9
Scullin Vic ALP $15.00 $1.00 $29.00 6% 91% 3% ALP 35.2 64.8
Watson NSW ALP $15.00 $1.00 $29.00 6% 91% 3% ALP 35.4 64.6
New England NSW Ind $13.00 $31.00 $1.00 7% 3% 90% Oth 35.8 0.0
Throsby NSW ALP $19.00 $1.00 $21.00 5% 91% 4% ALP 36.1 63.9
Fowler NSW ALP $17.00 $1.00 $21.00 5% 90% 4% ALP 36.5 63.5
Denison Tas ALP $14.00 $1.01 $23.00 6% 90% 4% ALP 36.7 63.3
Fraser ACT ALP $15.00 $1.00 $29.00 6% 91% 3% ALP 36.7 63.3
Port Adelaide SA ALP $15.00 $1.00 $29.00 6% 91% 3% ALP 37.1 62.9
Chifley NSW ALP $14.00 $1.00 $31.00 6% 91% 3% ALP 37.9 62.1
Reid NSW ALP $13.00 $1.00 $31.00 7% 90% 3% ALP 38.0 62.0
Cunningham NSW ALP $29.00 $1.01 $13.00 3% 90% 7% ALP 38.3 61.7
Hunter NSW ALP $13.00 $1.00 $31.00 7% 90% 3% ALP 38.8 61.2
Kennedy Qld Ind $19.00 $19.00 $1.00 5% 5% 90% Oth 39.5 0.0
Canberra ACT ALP $13.00 $1.00 $31.00 7% 90% 3% ALP 40.4 59.6
Maribyrnong Vic ALP $13.00 $1.00 $31.00 7% 90% 3% ALP 40.5 59.5
Shortland NSW ALP $13.00 $1.00 $31.00 7% 90% 3% ALP 40.7 59.3
Lalor Vic ALP $12.00 $1.01 $31.00 8% 90% 3% ALP 41.2 58.8
Newcastle NSW ALP $13.00 $1.00 $31.00 7% 90% 3% ALP 41.3 58.7
Kingsford Smith NSW ALP $12.00 $1.01 $31.00 8% 90% 3% ALP 41.4 58.6
Griffith Qld ALP $12.00 $1.01 $31.00 8% 90% 3% ALP 41.5 58.5
Charlton NSW ALP $12.00 $1.01 $31.00 8% 90% 3% ALP 41.6 58.4
Calwell Vic ALP $12.00 $1.01 $31.00 8% 90% 3% ALP 41.8 58.2
Fremantle WA ALP $11.00 $1.02 $31.00 8% 89% 3% ALP 42.2 57.8
Lingiari NT ALP $10.00 $1.03 $31.00 9% 88% 3% ALP 42.3 57.7
Barton NSW ALP $12.00 $1.03 $21.00 8% 88% 4% ALP 42.4 57.6
Franklin Tas ALP $11.00 $1.02 $31.00 8% 89% 3% ALP 42.4 57.6
Hotham Vic ALP $12.00 $1.01 $31.00 8% 90% 3% ALP 42.6 57.4
Oxley QLD ALP $12.00 $1.02 $23.00 8% 89% 4% ALP 42.8 57.2
Werriwa NSW ALP $11.00 $1.02 $31.00 8% 89% 3% ALP 42.9 57.1
Prospect NSW ALP $11.00 $1.02 $31.00 8% 89% 3% ALP 43.1 56.9
Perth WA ALP $12.00 $1.01 $31.00 8% 90% 3% ALP 43.3 56.7
Corio Vic ALP $11.00 $1.02 $31.00 8% 89% 3% ALP 44.4 55.6
Lilley Qld ALP $7.50 $1.06 $31.00 12% 85% 3% ALP 44.6 55.4
Brand WA ALP $2.90 $1.36 $34.00 31% 66% 3% ALP 45.3 54.7
Jagajaga Vic ALP $10.00 $1.03 $31.00 9% 88% 3% ALP 45.6 54.4
Brisbane Qld ALP $2.90 $1.36 $34.00 31% 66% 3% ALP 46.0 54.0
Capricornia Qld ALP $8.00 $1.05 $31.00 11% 86% 3% ALP 46.2 53.8
Lyons Tas ALP $5.00 $1.15 $31.00 18% 79% 3% ALP 46.3 53.7
Melbourne Ports Vic ALP $9.00 $1.08 $15.00 10% 84% 6% ALP 46.3 53.7
Bruce Vic ALP $5.00 $1.14 $31.00 18% 79% 3% ALP 46.5 53.5
Banks NSW ALP $5.00 $1.16 $26.00 18% 78% 3% ALP 46.7 53.3
Lowe NSW ALP $3.40 $1.28 $31.00 27% 71% 3% ALP 46.9 53.1
Rankin Qld ALP $4.15 $1.20 $31.00 22% 75% 3% ALP 47.0 53.0
Chisholm Vic ALP $3.25 $1.30 $34.00 28% 70% 3% ALP 47.3 52.7
Ballarat Vic ALP $3.15 $1.32 $34.00 29% 69% 3% ALP 47.8 52.2
Holt Vic ALP $2.75 $1.40 $31.00 33% 64% 3% ALP 48.5 51.5
Isaacs Vic ALP $2.60 $1.45 $31.00 35% 62% 3% ALP 48.5 51.5
Richmond NSW ALP $2.20 $1.62 $31.00 41% 56% 3% ALP 48.5 51.5
Adelaide SA ALP $2.65 $1.52 $15.00 34% 60% 6% ALP 48.7 51.3
Bendigo Vic ALP $2.24 $1.58 $34.00 40% 57% 3% ALP 49.0 51.0
Cowan WA ALP $2.08 $1.70 $31.00 44% 53% 3% ALP 49.2 50.8
Macquarie NSW ALP $1.93 $1.83 $26.00 47% 50% 3% ALP 49.5 50.5
Hindmarsh SA ALP $2.45 $1.50 $31.00 37% 60% 3% ALP 49.9 50.1
Swan WA ALP $2.00 $1.75 $31.00 45% 52% 3% ALP 49.9 50.1
Kingston SA Lib $2.25 $1.60 $31.00 40% 57% 3% ALP 50.1 49.9
Bonner Qld Lib $2.20 $1.62 $34.00 41% 56% 3% ALP 50.6 49.4
Wakefield SA Lib $1.92 $1.80 $34.00 47% 50% 3% ALP 50.7 49.3
Makin SA Lib $2.12 $1.67 $31.00 43% 54% 3% ALP 50.9 49.1
Braddon Tas Lib $2.08 $1.67 $41.00 44% 54% 2% ALP 51.1 48.9
Parramatta NSW Lib $2.25 $1.60 $31.00 40% 57% 3% ALP 51.1 48.9
Hasluck WA Lib $1.95 $1.80 $31.00 47% 50% 3% ALP 51.8 48.2
Stirling WA Lib $1.93 $1.80 $34.00 47% 50% 3% ALP 52.0 48.0
Bass Tas Lib $1.93 $1.78 $34.00 47% 51% 3% ALP 52.6 47.4
Wentworth NSW Lib $1.24 $3.75 $34.00 73% 24% 3% L-NP 52.6 47.4
Moreton Qld Lib $1.85 $1.88 $31.00 49% 48% 3% L-NP 52.8 47.2
Solomon NT CLP $1.88 $1.85 $34.00 48% 49% 3% ALP 52.8 47.2
Lindsay NSW Lib $1.87 $1.87 $31.00 49% 49% 3% L-NP 52.9 47.1
Eden-Monaro NSW Lib $1.87 $1.87 $31.00 49% 49% 3% L-NP 53.3 46.7
Bennelong NSW Lib $1.22 $3.75 $41.00 74% 24% 2% L-NP 54.0 46.0
Dobell NSW Lib $1.63 $2.20 $26.00 55% 41% 3% L-NP 54.8 45.2
Deakin Vic Lib $1.52 $2.40 $34.00 60% 38% 3% L-NP 55.0 45.0
McMillan Vic Lib $1.45 $2.60 $31.00 62% 35% 3% L-NP 55.0 45.0
Corangamite Vic Lib $1.08 $7.00 $31.00 84% 13% 3% L-NP 55.3 44.7
Boothby SA Lib $1.12 $5.50 $31.00 81% 16% 3% L-NP 55.4 44.6
Page NSW Nat $1.42 $2.75 $31.00 64% 33% 3% L-NP 55.5 44.5
Blair Qld Lib $1.24 $3.75 $31.00 73% 24% 3% L-NP 55.7 44.3
La Trobe Vic Lib $1.45 $2.60 $31.00 62% 35% 3% L-NP 55.8 44.2
Herbert Qld Lib $1.65 $2.15 $31.00 55% 42% 3% L-NP 56.1 43.9
Kalgoorlie WA Lib $1.55 $2.35 $31.00 58% 39% 3% L-NP 56.3 43.7
McEwen Vic Lib $1.35 $3.00 $31.00 67% 30% 3% L-NP 56.4 43.6
Cowper NSW Nat $1.08 $7.00 $31.00 84% 13% 3% L-NP 56.6 43.4
Longman Qld Lib $1.15 $4.80 $34.00 79% 19% 3% L-NP 56.6 43.4
Paterson NSW Lib $1.40 $2.80 $31.00 65% 32% 3% L-NP 56.8 43.2
Sturt SA Lib $1.05 $8.00 $34.00 86% 11% 3% L-NP 56.8 43.2
Robertson NSW Lib $1.30 $3.20 $34.00 69% 28% 3% L-NP 56.9 43.1
Gippsland Vic Nat $1.04 $9.00 $31.00 87% 10% 3% L-NP 57.7 42.3
Calare NSW Ind $1.25 $4.00 $17.00 72% 23% 5% L-NP 57.9 42.1
Flynn Qld Nat $1.50 $2.45 $31.00 60% 37% 3% L-NP 57.9 42.1
Petrie Qld Lib $1.40 $2.75 $34.00 65% 33% 3% L-NP 57.9 42.1
Higgins Vic Lib $1.01 $12.00 $31.00 90% 8% 3% L-NP 58.8 41.2
Hinkler Qld Nat $1.60 $2.22 $31.00 56% 41% 3% L-NP 58.8 41.2
Hughes NSW Lib $1.01 $12.00 $31.00 90% 8% 3% L-NP 58.8 41.2
Bowman Qld Lib $1.35 $3.00 $31.00 67% 30% 3% L-NP 58.9 41.1
Dickson Qld Lib $1.27 $3.50 $31.00 71% 26% 3% L-NP 59.1 40.9
Dunkley Vic Lib $1.08 $6.75 $31.00 84% 13% 3% L-NP 59.4 40.6
Canning WA Lib $1.25 $3.65 $31.00 72% 25% 3% L-NP 59.5 40.5
Gilmore NSW Lib $1.02 $11.00 $31.00 89% 8% 3% L-NP 59.5 40.5
Kooyong Vic Lib $1.00 $13.00 $31.00 90% 7% 3% L-NP 59.8 40.2
Goldstein Vic Lib $1.01 $13.00 $31.00 90% 7% 3% L-NP 60.0 40.0
North Sydney NSW Lib $1.01 $12.00 $31.00 90% 8% 3% L-NP 60.1 39.9
Dawson Qld Nat $1.02 $11.00 $31.00 89% 8% 3% L-NP 60.2 39.8
Leichhardt Qld Lib $1.06 $8.00 $31.00 86% 11% 3% L-NP 60.3 39.7
Ryan Qld Lib $1.06 $7.50 $34.00 85% 12% 3% L-NP 60.4 39.6
Forrest WA Lib $1.01 $12.00 $31.00 90% 8% 3% L-NP 60.5 39.5
Menzies Vic Lib $1.01 $13.00 $31.00 90% 7% 3% L-NP 60.7 39.3
Moore WA Lib $1.03 $10.00 $31.00 88% 9% 3% L-NP 60.8 39.2
Greenway NSW Lib $1.40 $2.75 $34.00 65% 33% 3% L-NP 61.0 39.0
Flinders Vic Lib $1.04 $9.00 $31.00 87% 10% 3% L-NP 61.1 38.9
Macarthur NSW Lib $1.08 $7.00 $31.00 84% 13% 3% L-NP 61.1 38.9
Warringah NSW Lib $1.02 $11.00