Oz Politics Blog

According to Mumble,

A courtesy call from [the Australian's] Editor-in-Chief Chris Mitchell this morning informed me that the paper is going to "go" Charles Richardson (from Crikey) and me tomorrow.

Chris said by all means criticise the paper, but my "personal" attacks on Dennis had gone too far, and the paper will now go me "personally".

No, I’m not making this up.

If they only get as personal as I get with Dennis, then it should be tame, as I don’t believe I’ve never criticised anything other than his writing.

And to think I described Dennis, in a chapter in a book being launched this month, as (with no sarcasm) "a fine journalist".

All very strange. And - I’d be lying if I didn’t admit - a little stomach-churning.

So what did the bucket from the Australian look like? Well, it was the entire editorial in today’s Oz; the sharp end of which was the last three paragraphs.

On almost every issue it is difficult not to conclude that most of the electronic offerings that feed off the work of The Australian to create their own content are a waste of time. They contribute only defamatory comments and politically coloured analysis. Unlike Crikey, we understand Newspoll because we own it. Martin O’Shannessy understands Newspoll because he runs it and Sol Lebovic understands Newspoll because he started it. The results of our analysis speak for themselves over 20 years.

A guide book recently published by one site demonstrates the extent of confused thinking on how the polls operate. A chapter by Mumble’s Peter Brent says two party preferred ratings are at the same time worthy but unreliable and that an Opposition Leader with a high satisfaction rating has no better chance of being elected than one with a low rating. He dismisses approval ratings and the preferred Prime Minister measure as “embroidery”. Yet the fact is when Mr Howard and Mr Rudd’s offices telephone The Australian to get advance warning on what the following day’s Newspoll will show they invariably want to know two things: The primary vote and preferred PM.

Not properly understanding how polls work gives our critics licence to project their own bias onto analysis of our reporting. The Australian is not beholden to any one side of politics and recent election outcomes vindicate our treatment of our polls. So let’s not mince words. e just don’t think many of our critics have any real clue about polling and very little practical experience of politics.

Is it me or does this seem just a touch too precious?

Update: also discussed by the Poll Bludger, Surfdom, Jackman, LP, HO, Quiggan, Tug Boat Potemkin, LP #2, the orstrahyun, PO, R’n'V, Webdiary, 10,000 mile view

Update #2: Nice to see Crikey did not respond.

Update #3: It appears that the comment Australian Blogger Tim Dunlop made on this poll war is no longer visible on the Australian website. A copy can be found here.

Update #4: Confirmed, the Australian pulled Tim’s post.

… is the CEO of Newspoll. Today he argued that Howard’s improvement in the beauty contest polling could well be followed by an improvement in the voting intention polling.

In John Howard’s first tilt at re-election in 1998, his better PM ranking rose from 31 per cent three months out to 42 per cent just prior to polling day. In 2001, his better PM rating rose from 42 per cent three months before the poll to 52 per cent just prior to election day. In 2004 his better PM rating rose from 48per cent to 51 per cent in the three months before the poll.

Close to the election, things get hairy and the campaign runs out on the basis of whatever lead has been established in the three months before.

However, the basic pattern of improved leader’s ratings being followed by an improved primary vote appears supportable.

As we approach this year’s election, a similar pattern seems to have emerged. Mr Howard’s personal ratings dropped shortly after Mr Rudd became Opposition Leader. A close look at the past month or two suggests that the slide in the Coalition primary vote has halted.

Based on experience, it seems likely that, if Mr Howard’s personal ratings improve, a rebound in the Coalition primary vote will follow.

Update: Possums Pollytics refutes O’Shannessy (quite convincingly).

… is the CEO of Roy Morgan Research. He has some interesting things to say on polling at Crikey. His conclusion: it’s too early to call the election with certainty.

But if the question being asked is: Can anything stop the ALP winning the Federal Election considering they have been well in front in all polls for months?

The answer is “yes”, but over the next few months much can happen and we know “over 20%” of electors make up their minds as they vote!

Latest email update from Portlandbet:

Portlandbet set the benchmark for election betting coverage last week by opening markets on all 150 seats and it has certainly attracted the attention of the punting fraternity with plenty of interest and plenty of betting.

With 150 seats to bet on, there is certainly no shortage of choice and bettors have reflected that with bets on 50 of the seats in the first week. Betting has tended to skew to the ALP early on with money running four-to-one for Kevin Rudd and his cohorts with plenty ready to take on the opinion of Portlandbet bookmakers that the ALP will struggle to win the required seats to change government.

There have been some big market movers with some fairly hefty bets radically changing some prices. The two biggest changes have been in the New South Wales seats of Greenway and Macquarie. In Greenway, the Coalition opened outsiders at $2.05 and have been bet heavily into $1.40. In Macquarie, the reverse has happened with the ALP opening at $2.22 and firming quickly into $1.83 favouritism. Other New South Wales seats to move are Lowe (ALP $1.38 to $1.28), Wentworth (ALP $7 to $3.75) and Calare (Coalition $1.45 to $1.25).

Punters have, as seen, stepped into both outsiders and favourites. The ALP have been bet as outsiders in a number of Queensland seats including Blair ($4.75 to $3.75), Bowman (3.65 to $3), Dickson ($4 to $3.50), Longman ($6.75 to $4.80) and Moreton ($2 to $1.88). Grey in South Australia (ALP $21 to $13) and Cowan in Western Australia (Coalition $2.22 to $2.08) have also seen punters attracted to the outsider.

Heavily bet favourites include the ALP in Hindmarsh ($1.60 to $1.36), the ALP in Chisholm ($1.50 to $1.30) and the Coalition in Kalgoorlie ($1.65 to $1.55).

The Portlandbet election coverage has attracted a wide varied interested with people from all walks of life keen to get set. From professional punters to political insiders to the man on the street, plenty of folk seem keen to bet politics. Log onto the Portlandbet website or give us a call if you fancy a wager.

When I first glanced at today’s headlines — Howard checks Rudd’s march — Kevin’s sizzle not snag-free — Howard finds fertile ground for support — I was expecting to read about a polling improvement for the Howard Government. What I found was a flat line.

The national two-party preferred vote share prediction was unchanged on the previous Newspoll: 56 to 44 in Labor’s favour. The Coalition’s predicted primary vote was unchanged on 39 per cent. Labor’s primary vote prediction had risen two points to 48 per cent. As Dennis Shanahan noted, “Rudd would win handsomely with these numbers.”

Worryingly for the Coalition, with both the most recent Newspoll and Morgan polls, we are perhaps seeing the trend moving average return to the Coalition since March 2007 beginning to slow. This trend must average around a percentage point per month between now and a late 2007 election for the Coalition to be in a competitive position. An earlier election would require a faster trend.

Being just over half way through the election year, the other worrying trend for the Coalition would be the emerging comparison with 1996.

On the positive side for the Coalition, the Prime Minister’s satisfaction rating has been improving gradually, and his net satisfaction rating is positive for the first time since the middle of March. Also, after being 13 points behind Rudd in the middle of March, and 12 points behind in the middle of May, Howard has drawn almost level to Rudd as the preferred Prime Minister. Notwithstanding the Prime Minister’s improved performance in the attitudinal polls, Shanahan reported,

The Coalition’s continued poor polling has caused concern within the Government and speculation that Mr Howard could be forced to step aside.

As an aside, Martin O’Shannessy, the new CEO of Newspoll, wrote a bloody good piece on how question design can influence poll results.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Update: Some have asked how does 2007 compare with 2001 and 2004. The answer is as follows.