Sportingbet individual seats
Andrew Leigh showed me some of the latest seat-by-seat odds from Sportingbet Australia. Sportingbet holds close to $1 million in bets on the Australian 2007 Federal election, and expects this to rise to over $2 million by the time of the election. Sportingbet is Australia’s biggest bookmaker, with annual turnover in excess of $1 billion.
I have converted the seat-by-seat odds to probabilities in the next table.
| Tues 17th July | Wed 18th July | Thur 19th July | ||||
| FEDERAL SEAT | ALP | Coalition | ALP | Coalition | ALP | Coalition |
| Dobell, NSW | 45% | 55% | 45% | 55% | 47% | 53% |
| Bennelong, NSW | 26% | 74% | 26% | 74% | 26% | 74% |
| EdenMonaro,NSW | 47% | 53% | 50% | 50% | 55% | 45% |
| Lindsay, NSW | 51% | 49% | 58% | 42% | 61% | 39% |
| Wentworth, NSW | 28% | 72% | 28% | 72% | 27% | 73% |
| Parramatta, NSW | 47% | 53% | 59% | 41% | 72% | 28% |
| Paterson, NSW | 33% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| Richmond, NSW | 55% | 45% | 62% | 38% | 77% | 23% |
| Macquarie, NSW | 55% | 45% | 55% | 45% | 66% | 34% |
| Lowe, NSW | 74% | 26% | 77% | 23% | 80% | 20% |
| Boothby, SA | 23% | 77% | 23% | 77% | 23% | 77% |
| Makin, SA | 55% | 45% | 55% | 45% | 63% | 37% |
| Wakefield, SA | 51% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 63% | 37% |
| Kingston, SA | 55% | 45% | 59% | 41% | 80% | 20% |
| Adelaide, SA | 77% | 23% | 77% | 23% | 77% | 23% |
| Hindmarsh, SA | 60% | 40% | 67% | 33% | 82% | 18% |
| Stirling, WA | 50% | 50% | 47% | 53% | 47% | 53% |
| Hasluck, WA | 51% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 57% | 43% |
| Brand, WA | 69% | 31% | 69% | 31% | 77% | 23% |
| Cowan, WA | 55% | 45% | 55% | 45% | 62% | 38% |
| Swan, WA | 54% | 46% | 54% | 46% | 58% | 42% |
| Corangamite, Vic | 28% | 72% | 28% | 72% | 28% | 72% |
| Chisholm, Vic | 69% | 31% | 69% | 31% | 79% | 21% |
| Ballarat, Vic | 67% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 77% | 23% |
| Holt, Vic | 66% | 34% | 66% | 34% | 77% | 23% |
| Isaacs, Vic | 62% | 38% | 62% | 38% | 62% | 38% |
| Bendigo, Vic | 68% | 32% | 68% | 32% | 82% | 18% |
| Blair, Qld | 60% | 40% | 60% | 40% | 60% | 40% |
| Moreton, Qld | 58% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 42% |
| Longman, Qld | 19% | 81% | 19% | 81% | 23% | 77% |
| Bowman, Qld | 29% | 71% | 29% | 71% | 29% | 71% |
| Petrie, Qld | 31% | 69% | 31% | 69% | 26% | 74% |
| Dickson, Qld | 27% | 73% | 27% | 73% | 27% | 73% |
| Herbet, QLD | 43% | 57% | 43% | 57% | 43% | 57% |
| Bonner, Qld | 62% | 38% | 62% | 38% | 77% | 23% |
| Hinkler, Qld | 38% | 62% | 38% | 62% | 29% | 71% |
| Flynn, Qld | 32% | 68% | 32% | 68% | 32% | 68% |
| Bass, Tas | 51% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 55% | 45% |
| Braddon, Tas | 59% | 41% | 59% | 41% | 59% | 41% |
| Solomon, NT | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 55% | 45% |
| TOTAL > 50% | 23 | 15 | 24 | 14 | 26 | 14 |
| TOTAL = 50% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
The overall odds on the 2007 election have Labor marginally ahead. To win majority government, Labor must net an additional 16 seats. If Labor were to win, it is interesting to speculate on the individual seats Labor would win. Looking at the electoral pendulum, if the punters think Labor is not going to win Bennelong (NSW), Wentworth (NSW) and Stirling (WA) — all of which are within the first 16 seats on a uniform swing basis — then they should be giving Labor seats like Dobel (NSW), Corangamite (Vic) and Boothby (SA) — which the punters have failed to do. I am also intrigued that the punters are giving Labor Blair but not Herbert. Both Queensland seats are on similar margins.
More generally, I find the cautious nature of the betting market — Labor has 11 chances in 20 of winning the next election — difficult to reconcile with the opinion polls that place the chance of a Labor election win (admittedly in the immediate past and not the future) better than 99 in 100.
