Oz Politics Blog

The latest CPI figures are out so it is time to revisit the Sawford formula. The formula states that if two or more of the unemployment, inflation and interest rates rise over a full, three-year electoral cycle, the government will lose. Conversely, if two or more fall the government will be returned.

The inflation news

The June quarter change in the Consumer Price Index was 1.2 per cent, and the annual inflation rate for the year ending 30 June 2007 was 2.1 per cent. This quarter’s rate was higher than expected, and if the quarter was annualised the inflation rate would be 4.8 per cent.

If volatile items are removed, the annual inflation rate to 30 June 2007 was 2.7 per cent. Both the high quarter rate and the highish annual rate once volatile items were removed have fueled speculation of an interest rate increase following the meeting of the Reserve Bank Board on the first Tuesday of August or September 2007.

For the historical record, average annualised inflation since March 1996 is 2.5 per cent. Average annualised inflation between March 1983 and March 1996 was 5.2 per cent.

The Sawford formula

Interest rates and unemployment are easy to call. The Reserve Bank interest rates are up since the 2004 election (indicated by the red line in the following graphs) and the unemployment rate is down.

More contestable is the inflation rate. Clearly the annual rate at the end of June 2007 is lower than it was in September or December 2004. However, the annual rate without volatile items is up, as are the two quarterly rates (albeit for one, only marginally).

It’s a hard call. Is it two up and one down, two down and one up, or one up and one down and one unchanged?

Antony Green wrote:

The research I’ve been doing on NSW elections has now been published as a draft website. You can find it at: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/resources/electionsanalysis

Quite happy for it to be pointed at and for people to use while someone works out exactly what they want to do with its formatting. It’s currently all laid out in my rather basic HTML.

The latest Newspoll is in today’s Australian with commentary from Dennis Shanahan. The headline prediction was 55 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition. Labor’s primary vote prediction was 47 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote prediction was 40 per cent.

Today I will give you two graphs (just to prove how easy it is lie with statistics). One graph is optimistic; the other is pessimistic. Which is which will depend on your political biases.

A post budget bounce?

History repeats itself?

Costello for PM?

Newspoll asked a series of John-or-Pete questions.

Almost one in three voters believes a Liberal leadership change from the Prime Minister to the Treasurer would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition in the October-November election, according to a new Newspoll survey.

Sixty per cent thought a leadership change would make no difference to their vote, with only 8 per cent saying they would be more likely to vote for a Coalition led by Mr Costello…

Of the 29 per cent who said they would be less likely to vote for a Coalition led by Mr Costello, 22 per cent said it would make them a “lot less likely” to vote for the Coalition.

Only 8 per cent of voters said they would be more likely to vote for the Coalition at the next election if Mr Costello became the Liberal leader.

The groups most strongly opposed to Mr Costello as leader were Labor supporters — 35 per cent were less likely to vote for the Coalition if it were run by the Treasurer — and women and young people between 18 and 34, at 30 per cent.

Those most likely to change their vote positively for Mr Costello were 35- to 49-year-olds, the group most likely to have a mortgage and children at home.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Over the past week there was a more significant move away from the government across the five bookmakers I am tracking than we have seen for a number of weeks.

Today the average probability for a Coalition win at the 2007 election is 44.3 per cent. Last Thursday it was 46.3, and Sunday one week ago it was 47.6 per cent.

The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

In today’s Oz, George Megalogenis reported on “secret” Coalition research.

THE Howard Government has suffered a dramatic slump in support among young Australians as secret Coalition research shows one in four voters aged 18-24 have swung to Labor since Kevin Rudd became Opposition Leader…

Mr Rudd has shifted about 10per cent of 25- to 34-year-olds into Labor’s column, and more than 15 per cent of part-time workers — a sign that Work Choices is still biting.

The Government is viewed by younger voters as arrogant and lacking in energy, according to the qualitative polling which seeks the reasons behind the hard numbers.

Younger voters see John Howard as losing his nerve and not reacting well to pressure, the research says. Mr Rudd, on the other hand, is rated as energetic and enthusiastic and wins applause for appearing cool under pressure, unlike his predecessors — Kim Beazley, Mark Latham and Simon Crean…

The Coalition research suggests that the Government risks losing office in good economic times, in part, because of a bottom-up backlash from workers who were too young to remember the last recession in 1990-91.

Concerns about climate change and Work Choices appear to be two of the triggers for the youth revolt.

The Coalition’s slump in the 18-34 year age cohort can be seen in the next graph of Newspoll’s quarterly polling. The graph plots the net primary vote for the Coalition from people in the 18-34 year age cohort. In the June 2007 quarter, Labor was ahead by 23 percentage points.