Is JWH the comeback kid?
I am expecting two more polls in the last weekend of July (a Galaxy and a Morgan face-to-face over this weekend). Nonetheless, I found the July results to date so fascinating I decided to share them.
The shock news: John Winston Howard appears to be on-track for a late December election win. The trend-line since March 2007 is heading exactly where John Howard would want.
A fly in the ointment for John Howard is Labor’s sticky high primary vote. As you can see in the next graph, the Coalition has been improving its primary and two-party-preferred vote through a decline in the Green, other minor party and independent vote. However, Howard’s capacity to mine that vein appears to be diminishing (as shown by the trend-line in the next graph).
If Howard is to win the 2007 Federal election, he will need to start winding back the Labor primary vote in the coming months.
As they say in the Opera, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings. The 2007 election could end up being a lot closer than I had previously thought.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
[Note: I included the Morgan poll for 23, 24 and 30 June and 1 July in the June period as three of the four polling days where in June. I have not included the Morgan telephone polls].