From 50-50 to 60-40 in Labor’s favour
July has seen the betting market reassess the probability of a Coalition win at the 2007 Federal election. At the beginning of the month it was pretty well 50-50. By the end of the month it could well be down to 40 per cent across the five bookmakers I have been tracking.
| Centrebet | IASBet | SportsBet | SportingBet | SportsAcumen | |
| 01-Jul-2007 | 50% | 49% | 48% | 49% | 48% |
| 08-Jul-2007 | 50% | 47% | 47% | 49% | 49% |
| 15-Jul-2007 | 49% | 47% | 46% | 49% | 48% |
| 19-Jul-2007 | 48% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| 22-Jul-2007 | 44% | 44% | 43% | 46% | 44% |
| 25-Jul-2007 | 43% | 43% | 42% | 44% | 44% |
| 26-Jul-2007 | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
Interestingly, the election betting market has become more competitive in recent months with the bookmaker’s overround or vigorish typically dropping to around 5 per cent.
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