Oz Politics Blog

The latest Newspoll is in today’s Australian with commentary from Dennis Shanahan. The headline prediction was 55 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition. Labor’s primary vote prediction was 47 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote prediction was 40 per cent.

Today I will give you two graphs (just to prove how easy it is lie with statistics). One graph is optimistic; the other is pessimistic. Which is which will depend on your political biases.

A post budget bounce?

History repeats itself?

Costello for PM?

Newspoll asked a series of John-or-Pete questions.

Almost one in three voters believes a Liberal leadership change from the Prime Minister to the Treasurer would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition in the October-November election, according to a new Newspoll survey.

Sixty per cent thought a leadership change would make no difference to their vote, with only 8 per cent saying they would be more likely to vote for a Coalition led by Mr Costello…

Of the 29 per cent who said they would be less likely to vote for a Coalition led by Mr Costello, 22 per cent said it would make them a “lot less likely” to vote for the Coalition.

Only 8 per cent of voters said they would be more likely to vote for the Coalition at the next election if Mr Costello became the Liberal leader.

The groups most strongly opposed to Mr Costello as leader were Labor supporters — 35 per cent were less likely to vote for the Coalition if it were run by the Treasurer — and women and young people between 18 and 34, at 30 per cent.

Those most likely to change their vote positively for Mr Costello were 35- to 49-year-olds, the group most likely to have a mortgage and children at home.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.