Michelle Grattan …
… in today’s Age …
Unless it wants to put its faith in last-minute miracles, the Government has to make progress soon. Age/ACNielsen pollster John Stirton says: “In hindsight … Latham’s decline began in June-July 2004 with the two-party vote for Labor being 52 per cent. Support for Labor fell to 50 per cent by early September, at the beginning of the campaign. No two elections are the same. Nevertheless, if Howard is to come back, the improvement has to start soon. The Coalition, now on 42 per cent, is very unlikely to get the 7 points it needs all in one go. (This is assuming 49 per cent would be just enough for Howard to win.)
“In 2004, Howard gained around 3 per cent in two-party terms during the campaign. Assuming a similar large gain in this year’s campaign — although that is probably unlikely in two elections in a row — he’ll need to be averaging about 46 to 47 per cent by the time the election is called,” Mr Stirton says. “This means that if the polling from now until the end of August hasn’t improved … the odds of a late recovery and another ‘come-from-behind’ election will become much more remote.”
Also worth listening to Michelle discuss the latest poll
As noted yesterday, ACNielsen reported much later and more pronounced election-year comebacks than Newspoll. Also, the two pollsters saw the end of 2004 in very different terms.
