ACNielsen: 58 to 42 in Labor’s favour
The latest ACNielsen is on message with an all too familiar story. The headline prediction is a national two party preferred vote of 58 per cent for Labor and 42 per cent for the Coalition. This is pretty well a flat line since April. Of note, Labor is getting around 75 per cent of the preference votes. At recent elections it has been around 60 percent. If we readjust the preference flows, the TPP prediction would be 56 to 44 in Labor’s favour, but there is no significant change to the flat line trend.
As the March peak moves out of the moving average we are seeing the trend return-to-government beginning to flat-line across all of the polls. (Note: this next graph uses the reported TPP figures from the pollsters, and not my recalculation for ACNielsen).
In terms of the comparisons with previous election years, 2007 is still tracking above previous years. The next two ACNielsen polls will be crucial. In previous election years, ACNielsen reported a Labor collapse in August and September.
On the primary votes, we have a trifecta. This is the third ACNielsen poll in a row with the Coalition on 39 per cent. At 49 per cent, the Labor primary vote was up one.
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Update: George Megalogenis has an interesting piece on how falling house prices in the aspirational suburbs are impacting on the 2007 election.
Update #2: Crikey reports on the levity from the Poll Bludger and Mumble following the editorial in last week’s Australian.