Oz Politics Blog

… is the CEO of Newspoll. Today he argued that Howard’s improvement in the beauty contest polling could well be followed by an improvement in the voting intention polling.

In John Howard’s first tilt at re-election in 1998, his better PM ranking rose from 31 per cent three months out to 42 per cent just prior to polling day. In 2001, his better PM rating rose from 42 per cent three months before the poll to 52 per cent just prior to election day. In 2004 his better PM rating rose from 48per cent to 51 per cent in the three months before the poll.

Close to the election, things get hairy and the campaign runs out on the basis of whatever lead has been established in the three months before.

However, the basic pattern of improved leader’s ratings being followed by an improved primary vote appears supportable.

As we approach this year’s election, a similar pattern seems to have emerged. Mr Howard’s personal ratings dropped shortly after Mr Rudd became Opposition Leader. A close look at the past month or two suggests that the slide in the Coalition primary vote has halted.

Based on experience, it seems likely that, if Mr Howard’s personal ratings improve, a rebound in the Coalition primary vote will follow.

Update: Possums Pollytics refutes O’Shannessy (quite convincingly).