Galaxy: 55 to 45 in Labor’s favour
A number of Murdoch papers carry the latest Galaxy poll (CM, DT, HS, AA). The headline prediction is that were an election held last weekend, Labor would have won 55 per cent of the two party preferred vote and the Coalition 45 per cent. This would have seen a landslide win for Labor, were the election held last weekend.
Almost universally, this has been reported as a two point backlash against the government. The previous Galaxy poll had the Coalition on 47 per cent, and Labor on 53 per cent.
I have maintained for some time that you cannot interpret an opinion poll simply by reference to the previous poll in the sequence. Today’s Galaxy poll is an example of where that approach is misleading. I would not be alone in suggesting the previous Galaxy poll was perhaps a little too favourable to the government. As a consequence, the previous poll did not provide a good base-line for assessing the current poll.
In my view, today’s Galaxy poll is consistent with a medium term trend back to the government. This post March 2007 trend is evident across all pollsters. It is evident in both the moving averages (which smooth out the odd rogue poll) and and the linear trend lines (which also smooth out the odd rogue poll).
For me the big questions are whether this post March 2007 trend will continue, and continue at the same rate, and whether the trend will be sufficient or not for Howard to win government by the end of the year. Unfortunately today’s trend lines and moving averages cannot answer these questions.
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