Oz Politics Blog

A few people have asked me about possible election dates for the Australian Federal election, which must be held between now and Saturday 19 January 2008.

I will speculate on election dates in a minute. First, however, let’s recap of the election rules and practices:

• Under the Commonwealth Electoral Act, elections must be held on a Saturday
• According to the AEC timetable, elections must be held at least 33 days after the expiry or dissolution of the House of Representatives, and no more than 68 days after the expiry or dissolution of the House of Representatives
• All elections subsequent to 1984 have been run in the minimum 33 day period
• The minimum 33 day period commences on the Monday, 4 weeks and 5 days before the Saturday election
• Traditionally, the House of Representatives is dissolved at midday. For the election called 33 days after the dissolution of the House, the dissolution of the House would occur on the Monday, 4 weeks and 5 days before the election
• Typically, the intention to have an election is announced a day or two before the dissolution of the House (Friday in 2001, Saturday in 1996 and Sunday in 1993, 1998 and 2004). With the minimum 33 day period, this allows the State Governors to issue the appropriate writs for the half Senate election
• A half Senate election can only be held one year before the expiry of the term. The first date the next half Senate election can be held is 4 August 2007

In the following table, I have set out all of the possible election dates between now and 19 January 2008. Using a traffic light metaphor, I have color coded the election dates I think least likely (red), plausible but not probable (amber), and likely (green).

While some 13 hours remain in which a 4 August poll could be called, there would be only a limited pre-announcement. As a result, I think 4 August 2007 highly unlikely.

My assessment is that am election in remainder of August is unlikely, primary because the opinion polls are not favourable.

The APEC Leaders Forum on 2-9 September, and the possibility that APEC Leaders will address the Australian Parliament in the sitting week of 10-13 September, pretty well rules out an election from 1 September to 13 October 2007.

An election after 15 December 2007 is unlikely because of school holidays, the Christmas break, and the length of he campaign.

My tip is that the 2007 election will be held in the eight week window between 20 October 2007 and 8 December 2007.