Oz Politics Blog

The latest Galaxy poll is out in the Murdoch press. The healdline two-party preferred result had Labor on 54 per cent and the Coalition on 46 per cent. The primary vote shares were: Labor 44 per cent, Coalition 41 per cent, Greens 10 per cent and others 5 per cent.

Today’s Galaxy poll is consistent with the prevailing, post-March 2007, polling grand meta-narratives. Labor is currently well ahead. But the gap is closing as the Coalition claws its way back into the game for a tight election contest in November or December 2007.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Over the past week there was a further move away from the government across the five bookmakers. Today the average probability for a Coalition win at the 2007 election is 42.8 per cent. Last Sunday it was 44.3 per cent.

The market was more convinced on Thursday this week than it is today. Last Thursday it was 42.3 per cent.

The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

If you don’t want to risk any of your well earned, you can place a tip on the 2007 election here

I am expecting two more polls in the last weekend of July (a Galaxy and a Morgan face-to-face over this weekend). Nonetheless, I found the July results to date so fascinating I decided to share them.

The shock news: John Winston Howard appears to be on-track for a late December election win. The trend-line since March 2007 is heading exactly where John Howard would want.

A fly in the ointment for John Howard is Labor’s sticky high primary vote. As you can see in the next graph, the Coalition has been improving its primary and two-party-preferred vote through a decline in the Green, other minor party and independent vote. However, Howard’s capacity to mine that vein appears to be diminishing (as shown by the trend-line in the next graph).

If Howard is to win the 2007 Federal election, he will need to start winding back the Labor primary vote in the coming months.

As they say in the Opera, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings. The 2007 election could end up being a lot closer than I had previously thought.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

[Note: I included the Morgan poll for 23, 24 and 30 June and 1 July in the June period as three of the four polling days where in June. I have not included the Morgan telephone polls].

Other than confirming that Labor is well ahead, it is difficult to discern any meaningful trend data from this series. All recent polls (not just Morgan’s telephone series) are within the margin of error given the small sample size for this latest poll: 527 voters.

July has seen the betting market reassess the probability of a Coalition win at the 2007 Federal election. At the beginning of the month it was pretty well 50-50. By the end of the month it could well be down to 40 per cent across the five bookmakers I have been tracking.

Interestingly, the election betting market has become more competitive in recent months with the bookmaker’s overround or vigorish typically dropping to around 5 per cent.

The other betting market graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.