August?
Mumble recently suggested a 4 August election (see 24 June and Crikey). Although to be fair, in Crikey he argued for an early August election. Mumble is not alone. Glen Milne has speculated on an August election, as has Karen Middleton in today’s Canberra Times (page B7 — no link).
I am not convinced. In fact I am skeptical. Deeply skeptical.
John Howard will call the election when he thinks he has his best shot at winning it. I am not convinced that would be in August. At the end of June, Howard had made up three or four percentage points in the polls since March. But he is still six points behind where he would want to be for an election. If Howard continues to claw back a percentage point each month, a late 2007 election would have to be the best bet.
By Monday evening we will know if Mumble is right about the fourth of August and by the following Monday evening we will know if he is right about early August. According to the AEC timetable elections must be called at least 33 days beforehand.
In the interim, I wonder if Mumble is up for a small wager on his early August proposition.