Movement?
So far this June, there have been five opinion polls, with a combined sample of over 6000 people. Collectively, these polls suggest a significant decline in Labor’s primary vote for the first time since Kevin Rudd’s appointment as Labor leader.
I looked at excluding the Galaxy poll from the first weekend in June as it appeared anomalous. Galaxy predicted a two-party preferred vote share for the Coalition of 47 per cent. The weighted average prediction from the four other polls for June was 42.9 per cent. However, even if you exclude the Galaxy poll from the first weekend in June, there appears to be an early June trend back towards the Government (see below).
Notwithstanding this movement, the June polls to date suggest that were an election held in the first weeks of June, it would have been a Labor landslide win.