Morgan: 58 to 42 in Labor’s favour
Morgan has published its headline results from its poll of 909 people from the weekend ending on 3 June 2007. Morgan predicted that Labor would win 58 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.
Morgan’s primary vote predictions are 51 per cent for Labor and 38 per cent for the Coalition. The Greens continue to poll poorly, on a new (post 2004) low of 5.5 per cent.
I know some commentators saw this poll as a 0.5 percentage point move away from the government, when compared with the last poll. Frankly that is nothing statistically.
More significantly, this is the second Morgan poll in row that is two points higher than the average of the preceding seven in the 39 to 40.5 per cent range. From where I am sitting, Morgan and Galaxy are both suggesting there may have been a move back to the government in voting sentiment over recent weeks. However, it should be noted that Newspoll does not support that notion.
At this point, we do not have enough data to say whether the latest Galaxy (47) or Newspoll (40) or both are rogue. It will be interesting to see which predictive trend is supported by subsequent polls.
The proportion of people who think Rudd will win the 2007 election looks like it is nudging the sort of figures Howard had behind him before Rudd’s elevation to the Labor leadership.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.