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At first blush, it is a bad poll for the government. Labor is unchanged on 58 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote share. Were an election held last Thursday to Saturday, the Coalition would have got 42 per cent.
However, the figures belie the Coalition’s primary vote which has improved for the second ACNielsen poll running. The Coalition’s primary vote prediction was 39 per cent (up two points). Labor’s primary vote prediction was 48 per cent (down two points).
Furthermore, the two-party preferred (TPP) prediction had the Coalition capturing only 23 per cent of the preference votes (down on the more typical 35 to 40 per cent). As a consequence, I suspect a more accurate TPP prediction would have been 56 to 44 per cent in Labor’s favour (using the preference flows from the last election).
In terms of the ACNielsen series, the 2007 election year is not out of kilter with 2001. A Coalition win from here remains plausible (but by no means guaranteed).
All of the polls suggest there is some movement back to the government since Rudd’s peak in March. What is more difficult to discern is whether the pace of that movement looks sufficient (should it be sustained) for Howard to win a fifth term. For me, the Coalition’s biggest concern is Labor’s extraordinarily high primary vote. That will take some beating, and my graphs suggest it is the most resilient against erosion.
I should also note that the previous three graphs are highly speculative. However, as we approach the election, they provide a way of testing the hypothesis that Howard will from come behind to win in 2007 as he had in previous years.
At this stage I would give Labor a 60 per cent chance and the Coalition a 40 per cent chance of winning in November-December 2007. The betting market has it closer to 50-50.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Update:
Interestingly, the betting markets don’t seem to have moved too much away from even money, while the polls have been giving a consistent message all year. The election will be a big test for the relative predictive powers of polls, pundits and punters.
I remain surprised at the dissonance between the polls and the betting market. The market thinks Howard has pretty much an even chance at winning the next election. The average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers is 49.1 per cent — not that different to where it was on Tuesday (49.9 per cent). In the past week we have had three more shocker polls for the government.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $1.95 | $1.83 | 48.4% |
| IASBet | $1.92 | $1.85 | 49.1% |
| SportingBet | $1.95 | $1.80 | 48.0% |
| SportsBet | $1.80 | $1.95 | 52.0% |
| SportsAcumen | $1.96 | $1.80 | 47.9% |
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
The latest Morgan poll is out. The headline statistic is a national, two-party preferred vote share of 59.5 per cent for Labor and 40.5 per cent for the Coalition.
The primary vote predictions were 36 per cent for the Coalition, 50 per cent for Labor, and 8 per cent for the Greens.
The sample size was on the small side: 821 voters.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Andrew Leigh has the 1996 Howard v Keating graph along side of the Rudd v Howard graph.
Possum has been looking at the Budget bounce, election regression models, and employment and brand X workplace relations