Just came across this …
The word ‘politics’ is derived from the word ‘poly’, meaning ‘many’, and the word ‘tics’, meaning ‘blood sucking parasites’.
Betting market update
The fall continues: the Coalition is just below 45 per cent probability of winning the 2007 election. However, it is still a close contest. The book makers are saying that if the same 2007 Federal election were repeated 20 times, John Howard would expect to win 9 elections and Kevin Rudd would expect to win 11.
| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $2.10 | $1.69 | 44.6% |
| IASBet | $2.10 | $1.72 | 45.0% |
| SportingBet | $2.05 | $1.75 | 46.1% |
| SportsBet | $2.15 | $1.70 | 44.2% |
| SportsAcumen | $2.12 | $1.68 | 44.2% |
The other graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Update: An interesting take on the betting market from Core Economics
Something new, something blue
You have probably noticed the new blue look and feel.
What do you think?
Newspoll: 55 to 45 in Labor’s favour
The internet version of the Weekend Australian has one of those polling reports I just love. No sample size and no deatils about whom was polled. The hard copy of the paper answered those questions: a national poll of 1146 voters between Monday and Thursday, 21-24 May 2007.
Labor was ahead of the Coalition on the two-party preferred vote share prediction: 55 per cent to 45 per cent. This is the closest the Coalition has been to Labor since mid-February.
The Coalition’s primary vote was unchanged on 39 per cent and Labor’s has dropped from 49 to 47 per cent.
On the highly speculative chicken entrails analyzer, three of the four pollsters now have amazingly convergent trend lines that point to a Coalition victory at the end of the year.
However, before the Coalition cheer squad breaks out the bubbly, I would not be surprised if Newspoll’s latest step to the right was just noise. If I rebase the chicken entrails analyzer to April, the story is not so sanguine. Overall, the polls have looked flat since early April. If there is a move on, it will take a couple more polls before we can confirm it.
The more interesting question is why did the Australian commission this Newspoll just days after its previous Newspoll. My suspicion is that it was designed to forestall any preemptive strike from Camp Costello following Howard’s annihilation comments. Key auxiliary questions were about Costello’s chances.
- Best prime minister: Rudd v Costello — 57 to 28
- Best candidate to lead the Liberals: Howard v Costello — 58 to 24
But there were a few shockers for the Coalition:
- More trustworthy: Rudd v Howard — 46 to 33
- Who will win the next election: Labor v Coalition — 57 to 30
I am a little intrigued at this point as Newspoll does not normally report on who the voters think will win. It looks like the last time Newspoll asked this question was December 2006, and prior to that, October 2004.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Morgan: 60 to 40 in Labor’s favour
I think it is fair to say Morgan has flat-lined. The predicted national two-party preferred vote share was 60 per cent for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, were an election held last weekend. The primary vote predictions were 51 per cent for Labor (steady on the previous Morgan poll) and 35.5 per cent for the Coalition (down 0.5 points). The sample size was 899 electors over the weekend of 19-20 May 2007.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.