ACNielsen aggregated
Today’s SMH and Age reported on an analysis of ACNielsen polling aggregated from November 2006 until May 2007.
The headline message: “Labor would be returned with 110 seats to the Coalition’s 38 — the most lopsided outcome since World War II.” “[T]he swing to Labor in Queensland alone could be enough to make Kevin Rudd the prime minister by Christmas.”
The state by state swings were as follows.
| Qld | NSW | Vic | SA+NT | WA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swing to Labor (%) | 13.2 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 11.8 | 3.7 |
| Likely Labor gains | 16 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 |
And there was a final note of caution.
ACNielsen research director John Stirton warns that poll findings and the election outcome are quite different things.
“Polls are not predictions of voting at the next election, which is still months away,” he says. “Polls measure current voting intentions, so changes can be tracked over time.”
Mr Stirton says the Coalition’s primary vote has risen by 2 percentage points in each of the past two polls. “It is possible that we will look back in several months and see this period as the start of the Government’s recovery,” he adds, predicting that the next month or two should make it clear whether any “bounce” back to the Government is under way.