Galaxy: 57 to 43 in Labor’s favour
According to the Daily Telegraph, Galaxy conducted a poll of 995 voters last weekend. The headline prediction was, were an election held last weekend, Labor would have won 57 percent of the national two-party preferred vote.
Labor’s primary vote was 49 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote was 39 per cent. The Greens are on 9 per cent. And independents and others got 3 per cent.
Of note:
Just days after Treasurer Peter Costello promised average workers a tax cut of $16 a week, only 16 per cent of those polled said they would be more inclined to vote for the Coalition, while 12 per cent said they were less inclined.
The vast majority of voters (67 per cent) said they would not be influenced either way by the big-spending Budget.
Asked whose industrial relations policies they preferred, 52 per cent endorsed Kevin Rudd while 35 per cent said they liked John Howard’s WorkChoices.
Another 13 per cent were uncommitted.
Both the DT and the Courier Mail have effectively declared it a no budget bounce poll. I just knew this headline going to happen; so I will conclude this post with an alternative interpretation of this Galaxy poll (just to be provocative).
Three weeks ago, the Galaxy TPP figure was 58 to 42 per cent in Labor’s favour. We both know that extrapolating any trend from these two data points is completely spurious. Nonetheless, the hypothetical exercise is instructive as it bodes caution against premature jubilation or despair with a change of government — depending on your political preferences. An average monthly 1.3 percentage point decline in Labor’s vote between now and the election would see the Coalition returned to Government. While a sustained average monthly decline of 1.3 percentage points over the next six months may be less likely than not, it is not implausible.