Oz Politics Blog

The latest Newspoll results were foreshadowed on Monday’s Lateline and published in Tuesday’s Australian. The predicted national two-party preferred vote share was 57 per cent for Labor and 43 per cent for the Coalition. According to the election calculator, that vote share would see Labor win around 103 seats at an election.

While this result looks like a two point move away from Labor and to the Coalition; it is within the margin of error from the previous poll and identical with the poll before that. It is arguable that the polling is moving in Howard’s favour from a Coalition low of 39 per cent in mid March. However, I suspect the volatility over recent weeks is more about noise than any underlying movement. If there is some movement, the key question for Coalition supporters is whether it is too little, too late.

Stock market chartists (which I am not) would argue that the most recent results are a classic flag formation. Consequently, we should expect future polls to crash through the recent 43 per cent ceiling. Similarly, practitioners of electoral voodoo would argue that there is an inherent 14 point bias in Newspoll, and the Coalition is actually ahead. Seriously, and with the greatest respect to Dennis Shanahan at the Oz, this poll is not evidence of “slowing the Rudd juggernaut”.

The primary vote predictions were 37 per cent for the Coalition (up two points) and 48 per cent for Labor (down two points). The Greens are on 5 per cent (down 1 point).

Howard’s satisfaction ratings are unchanged. 42 per cent are satisfied with the way John Howard is doing his job as Prime Minister. 49 per cent are dissatisfied.

Rudd’s satisfaction ratings have dipped a touch (though the change from the previous poll is not statistically significant). 64 per cent are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as Opposition Leader (down two points). 18 per cent are dissatisfied (up two points).

Rudd (46 per cent — down two points) remains ahead of Howard (39 per cent — up three points) as preferred prime minister.

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.