Oz Politics Blog

The predictions have been released from the latest Morgan poll of 1802 voters over the weekends of 7-8 and 14-15 April. The headline prediction was, were an election held at that time, Labor would have won 59.5 per cent of the national two-party preferred vote. According to my election calculator, Labor would have won around 120 of the 150 seats: a landslide.

Interestingly, while Labor remains ascendant, there has been a slight trending upwards since February in the Coalition’s two party preferred vote prediction. However, the Morgan trend rate is insufficient to project a Coalition victory at year’s end. Furthermore, as the trend is not (yet?) evident in either Newspoll or ACNielsen, it may be nothing more than noise in the Morgan series.

The pollster referred to a special poll on industrial relations, but I could not find the actual poll.

“IR is the sleeper issue of this campaign and, with the ALP releasing their alternate IR policies on Wednesday, it will be interesting to see if they resonate with the public.

“A Special Roy Morgan survey shows that 87% of the one million plus electors on AWAs are satisfied with the way they are employed, which is slightly higher than the 84% of those electors on industrial-based awards, and 85% of those electors who maintain that they are on individual contracts who are satisfied with the way they are employed.”

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