Newspoll: 59 to 41 in Labor’s favour
The headline result from the latest Newspoll was just pre-announced on Lateline. The national two-party preferred vote prediction, were an election held last weekend, was 59 percent for Labor and 41 per cent for the Coalition. I am not reading any bounce in today’s figures. Although there is a little volatility, Newspoll’s TPP prediction has been within this range for four polls over six weeks.
The election calculator predicted Labor would win 117 of 150 seats — a landslide — should Labor win 59 per cent of the two party preferred vote at the next Federal election. But before Labor supporters get too excited, remember that Labor’s best Federal performance was 53.23 per cent in 1983. I suspect that a prediction of 59 per cent in 2007 is fanciful.
There is even less in this poll for Coalition supporters. At this point in 2001 and 2004 we were starting to see a trend down from Labor’s high point for the year. It is difficult to argue that today’s data point is following that same narrative. If the next two polls are in the same range, Coalition supporters should be officially worried.
You may need to hit the refresh button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
Rudd’s rating as better PM was 48 per cent (unchanged), compared with 36 per cent for Howard (down two points).
More details when tomorrow’s papers are published.
Update 17 April
Well I now have access to the full suite of Newspoll statistics from the Australian.
Rudd’s satisfaction rating has been at or greater than 60 per cent now for 6 polls. A remarkable achievement considering the flak he has been copping. The contrast with Beazley is stark.
