Election calculator
I have uploaded an election calculator for predicting the number of seats a party will win at the 2007 Federal Election for any given national two-party (TPP) preferred vote share.
It is built on the Mackerras Electoral Pendulum, which can be found here.
Interestingly, the Coalition loses majority government at 49.8 per cent of the national TPP vote share. However, because of the two continuing independents, and the distribution of votes, Labor does not win majority government until it wins 52.1 per cent of the national TPP vote share. Labor has a disproportionate share of its vote locked up in safe seats.
For the record, I have treated the seat of Calare in a cavalier manner, given the redistribution and the impending resignation of independent member Peter Andren. It is probably a much saffer Coalition seat than I have it on this system.
As is the way with these sorts of projects, there is always the chance that I have made a mistake in the underlying arithmetic and algorithms. If you see such a mistake, please drop me a line and I will fix it.