Betting market update
The average probability from the five bookies for a Coalition government following the 2007 election is 47.1 per cent. It was 46.7 per cent on Monday last week.
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| Bookmaker | Coalition Odds | Labor Odds | Probability of a Coalition Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centrebet | $2.00 | $1.75 | 46.7% |
| IASBet | $2.00 | $1.80 | 47.4% |
| SportingBet | $2,00 | $1.75 | 46.7% |
| SportsBet | $2.05 | $1.73 | 45.8% |
| SportsAcumen | $1.90 | $1.82 | 48.9% |
The betting market has the 2007 election as too close to call. It is pretty close to even money each way, and it looks like the market is beginning to flat-line. The trend to Rudd appears to be running out of steam (at least for the moment). While Howard is the underdog, clearly the punters think he has a real chance of winning in 2007.
When you consider the recent stellar polls for Labor, one must ask: Why is the betting market being so cautious? There are a few possibilities:
- A week is a long time in politics — anything could happen between now and the election
- The punters think Howard a wily politician, with plenty of tricks still in the kit bag
- They are still unsure whether Rudd has peaked too early or can do the hard yards — sure he was out of the blocks quickly, but elections are long and punishing marathons
What do you think?