NSW Election Update

Bryan · Monday 26 March 2007 · 9:18 pm

The NSW Election Commission has completed a notional allocation of preferences for all seats.

The following seats look safe: Barwon (Nat), Maitland (Lab), Menai (Lab), Newcastle (Lab).

The following seats still look too close to call:

It will be interesting to see if absentee and postal votes affect these seats.

If I can do my sums, it still looks like Labor with 53 seats. I think the ABC Election site incorrectly calls Newcastle as an independent win, and therefore the ABC gives Labor only 52 seats.

The Poll Bludger is also following these results.

Update 27 March 7.40am: In comments, Antony Green points out that the NSW Election Commission’s notional preference allocation makes assumptions about the order in which candidates will be eliminated in the actual count. It is possible that these assumptions are incorrect. The Commission’s notional count is between the ALP’s McKay and Independent Gaudry, who came first and third on the primary votes. The Independent candidate who came second, Tate, is ignored.

In today’s SMH, Tate conceded he is trailing by some 700 votes in the count. However, it is not clear whether this is trailing at the point of exclusion in the count, or trailing on a notional McKay v Tate allocation of preferences.

Despite this, Cr Tate, Newcastle’s popular Lord Mayor and independent candidate, has not conceded defeat and said a result could still be days away. Cr Tate said he was trailing by about 700 votes. “No, it’s not over yet. I am quietly confident. I don’t think it will be a big margin if we do win but we really just have to wait and see,” Cr Tate said.

This suggests that Labor is ahead under either the Tate or Gaudry scenario. Nonetheless, Newcastle should remain in the too close to call bucket.

The same SMH article reported the Premier almost conceding Lake Macquarie. If so, it would make the final outcome Labor with 52 seats.

Greg Piper, Mayor of Lake Macquarie, is expected to snatch the seat from Labor’s Jeff Hunter.

Mr Iemma said: “In Lake Macquarie, Mr Hunter is just in front but … there are many thousands of postal and pre-polls and a big Seventh Day Adventist community who obviously don’t vote on Saturdays, so those votes are still to be counted.

I have adjusted the provisional results from the tipping competition to reflect a likely outcome of Labor with 52 seats.

Update 27 March 10.30pm: Independent Greg Piper is now ahead in Lake Macquarie by 263 votes.

Update 30 March 6.30pm: Liberal is now ahead of Labor in Port Stephens by 19 votes

NSW ·