Live NSW election night blogging

Bryan · Saturday 24 March 2007 · 4:35 pm

Tonight, from 6.30pm, I will be updating this page with live election night commentary.

An ongoing tally is at the bottom of the page.

My election tipping competition has closed.


Live commentary

9.37
Well I think I might call it quits. Clearly a Labor victory. But I am not convinced by every seat allocated by the ABC computer. I have left Barwon, Dubbo, Goulburn, Lake Macquarie, Menai, Miranda, Newcastle and Port Stephens as too close to call
9.32
I have moved Gosford to possible Labor.
9.27
I have moved Wollondilly to possible Labor.
9.16
I have moved Dubbo back to too close to call.
9.11
I have moved Lake Macquarie from the Labor to too close to call.
9.09
Antony Green is predicting Labor with 53 seats; Coalition 33 and Independents 7.
9.05
I have moved Tweed to possible Coalition.
9.03
ABC reported unconfirmed sources that Debnam has called Iemma to concede defeat
8.59
I have moved Monaro to possible Labor.
8.56
I have moved Maitland to possible Labor.
8.52
I have moved Camden to possible Labor.
8.50
I have moved Bega to possible Coalition.
8.38
I have moved Newcastle from the Coalition to too close to call.
8.26
I have moved Kiama to possible Labor.
8.22
I have moved Barwon from the Coalition to too close to call.
8.20
I have moved Lane Cove to possible Coalition.
8.17
I have moved Clarence to possible Coalition.
8.13
I have moved Baulkham Hills to possible Coalition.
8.09
I have moved Drummoyne to possible Labor.
8.08
I have moved Hornsby to possible Coalition.
8.07
I have moved Terrigal to possible Coalition.
8.03
I have moved Murray-Darling to possible Coalition.
8.03
I have moved South Coast to possible Coalition.
7.59
Antony Green is predicting Labor with 52 seats.
7.56
I have moved Penrith to possible Labor.
7.54
I have moved Marrickvile and The Entrance to possible Labor.
7.53
Antony Green is having all sorts of problems with his computer system when the 2PP vote is against an independent
7.43
Coalition well ahead of Independent in Manly - 17% counted
7.38
Independent well ahead of the National in Dubbo - 17% counted
7.38
Independent well ahead of the National in Tamworth - 20% counted
7.31
Coalition well ahead of Independent in Pittwater - 10% counted
7.27
ABC web site on Balmain has Labor well ahead of the Greens - 10% counted

7.24
Antony Green has called the election - Labor back with at worst a loss of one or two seats
7.22
Election Commission site has the Liberal ahead of the independent in Pittwater
7.15
ABC Doubtful seats page has the Independent ahead of Pru Goward
7.15
And I just moved it back
7.14
I have moved Dubbo from to-close-to-call to possible Coalition
7.07
Antony Green said a one per cent swing in the country, three against the government in the Hunter, and four against in the city
6.57
ABC web site is predicting 2 additional seats for the Coalition, and one less for each of Labor and the Independents
6.54
Monaro - early country booths - 6+ per cent swing for Labor
6.52
The Entrance - 2.5% swing to Liberals
6.48
Early figures suggest Stephen Pringle (independent) will retain Hawkesbury
6.45
WOW - Tweed - early booths suggest it could change hands - from Labor to the Coalition - this is Labor’s most marginal seat
6.39
Tamworth - a few booths - a 12.4% swing to Nationals - away from the sitting independent
6.37
Goulburn - one booth - a 12.4% swing to Liberals - looking good for Pru Goward
6.30
ABC2 begins its coverage with the seat of Heathcote and and a (highly speculative) 4% swing to Labor. More significantly, the Greens are looking good with 23% of the primary vote.


Updated tally

Note: I am starting with the assumption that the safe seats are unlikely to change hands.

Possible Labor Wins Possible Coalition Wins Possible Green or Ind. wins Hard to call

Auburn
Balmain
Bankstown
Bathurst
Blacktown
Blue Mountains
Cabramatta
Canterbury
Camden
Campbelltown
Cessnock
Charlestown
Coogee
East Hills
Fairfield
Gosford
Granville
Heathcote
Heffron
Keira
Kiama
Kogarah
Lakemba
Liverpool
Londonderry
Macquarie Fields
Maitland
Maroubra
Marrickville
Monaro
Mount Druitt
Mulgoa
Oatley
Parramatta
Penrith
Riverstone
Rockdale
Ryde
Shellharbour
Smithfield
Strathfield
Swansea
The Entrance
Toongabbie
Wallsend
Wollongong
Wollondilly
Wyong

Albury
Ballina
Baulkham Hills
Bega
Burrinjuck
Castle Hill
Clarence
Coffs Harbour
Cronulla
Davidson
Drummoyne
Epping
Hawkesbury
Hornsby
Ku-ring-gai
Lane Cove
Lismore
Manly
Murray-Darling
Murrumbidgee
Myall Lakes
North Shore
Orange
Oxley
Pittwater
South Coast
Terrigal
Tweed
Upper Hunter
Vaucluse
Wagga Wagga
Wakehurst
Willoughby

Northern Tablelands
Port Macquarie
Sydney
Tamworth


Barwon (NP?)
Dubbo (Ind?)
Goulburn (Lib?)
Lake Macquarie (ALP?)
Menai (ALP?)
Miranda (ALP?)
Newcastle (ALP?)
Port Stephens (ALP?)
Total: 48 Total: 33 Total: 4 Total: 8

Related sites

NSW Virtual Tally Room

The PollBludger is doing a live blog coverage.

ABC Election site