NSW Election: last chance to place a tip
Two polls are in today.
Galaxy poll has predicted 53 to 47 per cent in Labor’s favour. But perhaps the key finding from Galaxy is this election result is not about who you like the most, it is about who you hate the least. Iemma’s disapproval rating is 59 per cent, and Debnam’s is 67 per cent. It is possible that with these disapproval ratings and optional preferential voting, we will see a high vote cast for Greens and independents, with no transfer to the major parties. This might see a closer result with the Galaxy primary vote predictions of 38 per cent for the Coalition and 40 per cent for Labor. The PollBludger notes that Galaxy has a good track record in predicting outcomes.
ACNielsen paints a much more sanguine picture for Labor, with a prediction of 56 to 44 in Labor’s favour. The primary vote predictions from ACNielsen were 41 per cent for Labor and 36 per cent for the Coalition. The disapproval ratings were 33 per cent for Iemma and 51 per cent for Debnam.
In what might be a warning for the Federal election, ACNielsen found that industrial relations was the issue of most concern to voters. “The poll found 18 per cent of those surveyed listed industrial relations as the most important issue. The next most important was health, which was cited by 15 per cent of voters, followed by education with 14 per cent… public transport and roads were listed by 11 per cent of voters. The traditional state election issue of law and order was of least concern; 9 per cent rate it as a priority.” However, this result may simply be a case of brand identification: “Of those inclined to vote Labor tomorrow, one in three cited the industrial relations laws as their priority, compared with only one in 16 Coalition voters”.
On the betting market, the story has been pretty consistent for most of the campaign. Iemma has about 17 chances in 20 of becoming Premier following the election. Debnam has just three chances in 20. (You may need to hit the refresh/reload button on your browser to see the latest chart).
Today is your last chance to place a tip on the the NSW election:
- NSW Legislative Assembly 2007
- NSW Legislative Council 2007
- NSW Legislative Assembly Individual Seat Results 2007
I will close these tipping competitions at 8am 4pm tomorrow.
Update: I will be doing live reporting on the NSW election count.